Hanging On By a Thread

Apparently I spoke way too soon in my last post.

Yes, I am by all accounts out of the big money pool I was in, which saddens me because I really could have used the nice pot at the end. But, what I didn't know was that I was and still am very alive in my own pool. The reason for the confusion?

I didn't understand my own scoring system.

In my pool, you get one point for each victory in round one, two in round two, four in the Sweet 16, eight in the Elite Eight, 16 in the Final Four, and 32 for picking the correct championship team. Oh, and throw in bonus points for upsets, a nice little ingenius tactic which Yahoo! allows users to enable.

So, through the Elite Eight, I'm currently losing to, of all people, my girlfriend by four points because she had the foresight (sarcasm) to pick Michigan State to make it to Detroit. My future brother-in-law Rav is third down by six, but more or less he is the favorite to win. He has Connecticut getting to the championship (16 points) and North Carolina winning both the semi-final and the title game (48 points). I need a small miracle: I need Kalin Lucas and Co. to defeat the mighty Huskies. For me, the tourney comes down to that game. If they win, I win. Is it possible? Honestly, if they can beat the Cardinals, why can't they beat UConn?

This is why I like blogging. If I wrote about this at a professional newspaper or online organization, I'd probably be slammed. "You're promoting gambling." I don't know, maybe I am. Maybe that's just the poker player in me. But, to me these pools are about more than the money. It's about bragging rights for the next year. The $100 or so profit I would make from winning this tourney is inconsequential. If the buy-in for this pool was $1, I really don't think anything would change. I'd still be on the edge of my seat, cheering for scenarios to unfold and sending my opponents into a crying frenzy.

If Asher Roth loves college, I love March.

PREDICTIONS!!!!!!!

Okay, I'll be the first one to admit that I avoided talking about the NCAA Tournament for the last two posts because I'm a little salty. It sucks not being in the running for the sixth year in a row after such a hot start to my bracket predicting "career".

Anyway, here go some "surefire" predictions.


UConn/Purdue: Yes, the Baby Boilermakers are a year older now, and while they struggled at times with puberty this season, they seem to be clicking at the right time, showing everybody that hey, maybe the Big Ten is a decent conference after all. Unfortunately, none of that will matter. A.J. Price and Hasheem Thabeet are on another level, and Purdue doesn't really have an answer for those two. Huskies by ten or more.

Pittsburgh/Xavier: If the Panthers somehow make it to the Final Four like I predicted they would, Sam Young deserves the keys to the city. He absolutely saved them last game against an Oklahoma State team that frankly should be playing in this game. The Musketeers just keep creeping up on you like a cop on the interstate. Then, they're finally right behind you and you can't ignore them anymore. The Panthers are just hoping they don't get pulled over by the boys in blue. Even if they do, I just get the feeling that DeJuan Blair will be able to talk them out of a ticket. Okay, enough police metaphors: Panthers in a close one, six or less.

Duke/Villanova: The Blue Devils, with help from above I suppose, single-handedly took me out of the running on Saturday night after snatching pretty much every single loose ball and seeing every single Texas shot rim out late in the game. Maybe it's fate... maybe this perimeter-oriented but tough-minded team will do the unthinkable and cut down some nets. On behalf of Terp fans everywhere, I'm hoping that Scottie Reynolds, Corey Fisher and Dante Cunningham put an end to that thought. Seriously though, this should be a good one. I just flipped a coin, and it said 'Nova wins by five or more. Must be fate.

Missouri/Memphis: I think this has the potential to be the best game of the night. I expect the pace to be blistering, 40 minutes of utter chaos. It could be one of those games where whoever blinks first loses. In the end, however, I think Memphis has far more talent. They're truly the most improved team in the country since November. I remember watching Tyreke Evans around that time and thinking to myself, "Forget leaving after one year: can you stay for six?" Since then he's turned himself into one of the best players in the country. I don't know if Mizzou has an answer for him. I was about to write Tigers by eight...ROFL (bet you don't remember that one, huh?)... it's Memphis.

I am not sexist...

I have a daughter whom I love more than anything else on this planet. I've introduced her to basketball, and as far as I can tell she likes it (or at least likes the cool cheers her daddy does during Terp games). At some point I will encourage her to try athletics, and if she so chooses it'd be cool to see her play basketball. I would go see every game, be that crazy dad in the stands, and while I may end up inevitably embarrassing her at some point, I would definitely support her.

Which makes it even harder to write the next sentence.

The women's college basketball tournament is a joke, and I feel horrible for the Duke Blue Devils.


(Pardon me as I try to dodge all these eggs being tossed at me.)






The game itself is okay. Although women don't (neccesarily) play above the rim, there's more fundamentally sound play. You see far less bad shots and better overall teamwork on the women's level, which I think may be a product of players staying all four years with few exceptions. Unlike the NBA, the WNBA doesn't offer enough incentives for players to bolt. Good or bad, they don't try to.

So no, this isn't slamming women's basketball. It's slamming the way the tournament field is staged. 16 "pre-determined" sites is one thing, better than the way it used to be I guess. Back in 1994 when the field expanded to 64 teams, the higher seeds hosted first round games. Now that was just plain awful. If I had started doing brackets back then for women's basketball I literally would have no upsets predicted. And, I'd probably win.

So yeah, as much as giving home court advantage in the tourney is bad, having a one seed play on a NINTH seeds' home court---not 20 minutes away, not 45 minutes away, on their HOME COURT--- is atrocious. You bust your hump all season long to get that one seed, only to find out that you have to play your first two rounds in an inferior opponents' gym. Oh yeah, and factor in that Michigan State absolutely hates your guts because you stole their coach, and it almost cancels out the fact that you are indeed the better team.

All because it was pre-determined.

"Oh yeah, let's have regionals in College Park and Connecticut."

While it is true that sometimes teams benefit from playing close to home in the men's game (Villanova, North Carolina), keep in mind that they're playing CLOSE to home. Sure, it helps. But if Carolina is playing LSU at a weighted neutral site, chances are there will be plenty of non-Carolina fans hoping for Tar Heel blood. At the Breslin Center? I didn't see the game, but I'm willing to bet that 90% of the people who showed up didn't want Duke to win.

Just adopt the men's system. Maybe it's flawed, too... but at this point it's better than the women's.

Thankfully nobody reads this blog...

Open Audition

So, by now if you've been reading my blog for any length of time you'd know I was a big Dallas Mavericks' fan/apologist.

With the way this season is going, it's apparent that the Mavs, while dangerous, will be somewhere in between the six to eight seed, meaning a playoff spot and a draft pick somewhere in the 20s.

With Jason Kidd's contract ready to expire at the end of the year, does it take a brain surgeon to realize where Dallas is going to look in the draft?

So while the rest of you are sweating over upsets and Cinderellas and such (my bracket blew up over the weekend unfortunately), I'm analyzing what point guards will be around that 20-25 range.

NBADraft.net has the Mavs taking Ty Lawson, which as a fan I would have absolutely no problem with, especially the way he looked against LSU on Saturday. At the college level, he is without a doubt the best PG at getting to the rim and finishing. I only have two worries with him: first, will he be able to get to the rim with that kind of regularity at the next level, and second, can he consistently knock down open jumpers? Conclusion: the Mavs can do much worse than Lawson.

What about a guy like Jonny Flynn? Personally, I like him better than Lawson because of his stroke is more pure, plus I think he's better at running the half-court stuff. At the worst I think he'll be a solid NBA starter, but I think he has the chance to be a poor man's Chris Paul. Soak that in for a second, and before you belittle me and call me an idiot, think about their games: the handle, the passion, the will to win... I like Flynn. The only issue he has at times is his shot selection, but on a team like the Dallas who has proven scorers I think he'll be fine.

All year long I've been clamoring for Stephen Curry to somehow fall the Mavs' way, but will he declare? Draft.net took him off the boards inexplicably and put him in the 2010 Mock. I wrote a couple posts back that maybe Curry was so peeved by how things ended up this season that he'll be determined to come back dedicated to the team. If it happened with any senior it probably would be Curry, who thanks to daddy's NBA career will be fine financially, and at the very worst he will be playing basketball somewhere after he graduates, whether it's in the NBA or Europe (doubtful). Maybe he enjoys his last season in the limelight of a college campus.

Finally, I know there are point guards ahead of him in mock drafts, but what about Greivis Vasquez? His play this year was up and down, but I think that was more a product of having to shoulder the burden of carrying a limited team. His size at the point guard position will intrigue many NBA teams, and especially with the team's penchant for drafting internationally, I wouldn't rule out the Venezuelan Vacillator (because of his tendency to border on stardom and then do something that makes you say, "Never mind.")

Obviously, as workouts take place, the list of candidates will constantly change, but one thing is for sure... the Dallas Mavericks neeeeeeeeeeeeeed a point guard.

Like I neeeeeeeeeeeeed to stop doing bracket pools.

15/16

I'm feelin' myself a little bit after posting my best start in pool play history...

But, like a poker tournament, you get nothing for finishing Day 1 as the leader.

Random thoughts after Day 1...

• Next year, I'm definitely requesting the first two days of the tournament off (maybe by then I'll have a real job). It is next to impossible to work under these conditions, constantly waiting forever for text messages to come and having to rely on people at work who when I ask them for a score they say, "The Lakers are winning."
• Big win for Maryland. I fully expect them to give the Memphis Tigers all they can handle.
• Speaking of which, the Tigers showed up to their game against powerhouse Cal-State Northridge an hour and a forty five minutes late.
• Both Western Kentucky and UCLA provided free clinics for how NOT to close out a game with a big lead.
• Is Blake Griffin going to be okay?
• How the hell am I going to leave work in time for the Maryland game????

15-1, baby. Great start.

Justin Cherot's Bracket Press Conference Coverage

The following is a transcript of Justin Cherot's March Madness Press Conference

Moderator: Ladies and gentlemen... wait, it looks like there's only one of you... okay, sir, I'd like to welcome you to Justin Cherot's press conference on the eve of the 2009 NCAA Tournament. In a moment we'll welcome Mr. Cherot to the stage, where he'll briefly share some thoughts about this upcoming tournament and field questions. Keeping in mind that we have time limitations (his daughter is about to wake up in less than 45 minutes), we'd politely ask to keep questions limited to the topic of the tournament and nothing else. Thank you. Now, without further ado, bracket pool legend, Justin Cherot.

Cherot: Thank you, Mr. unnamed moderator. Due to a lack of advertising budget I wasn't able to get any bigger names but thank you for being here. Folks... okay, I see there's only one of you... sir, first off I'd like to express my excitement for the madness returning. I somehow made it through that long, exhausting regular season which saw good teams choke, underdogs prevail, and NBA scouts yawn. Now comes the real fun part, March Madness, a time when virtually anything can happen... well, except for a 16 beating a one. It's just not going to happen this year, just like every other year the field of 64 or 65 has existed.

What I usually do during my previews is I breakdown every single game and my reasons for making such bold and, at times, irrational predictions. In an attempt not to bore my very few readers who have ADD, I am simply going to link to my bracket.

My reason for holding this brief press conference is simple. My recent struggles at doing these things is well-documented, having not recorded a pool win since Carmelo Anthony set the world on fire in 2003. I know I've been saying this for the past few years, but I anticipate this year to be my big comeback. I have prepared feverishly for this month, and my homework over the past several months will prove more than worth the trouble.

Thank you.

Moderator: We will now field questions from the press... all one of you. Go ahead, sir.

Crazy Bone: Remember me, from last year you [expletive]!?

Cherot: I don't seem to recall.

Crazy Bone: "Don't seem to recall." Nice selective memory. Cite me when I pick Florida to win the title in 2000 and Syracuse to win in 2003, BLAME ME when you haven't won a pool since Lindsay Lohan was still considered adorable.

Cherot: That was a long time ago.

Crazy Bone: Whatever, I'm not here to pick a fight with you. I'm just here to analyze the bracket you made without my help. I have some questions.

Cherot: Shoot.

Crazy Bone: Not a ton of upsets in the first round, three number ones in the Final Four. In a year where there's a ton of parity, what the [expletive] are you thinking?

Cherot: I'll start with the first round. I admit that only five upsets, two of which are eight/nine games that are basically only "de-seedings", seems a little light for me. But, in my recent struggles I have noticed a disturbing trend: either I shoot out to a huge lead or I'm completely out of the running after day one. From a strategic standpoint, going for less upsets in round one makes sense. From a basketball standpoint, I just don't see that many upsets in round one. I definitely see Arizona, Maryland, and Western Kentucky advancing as double digit seeds because, quite frankly, I feel that they're better than the teams they match-up against. But beyond that, I can't see any mid-major magic. As for the Final Four, you're right: I do have three number ones there, with kind of an asterisk on Carolina. News broke a few hours ago about Ty Lawson not being readyfor Radford. It won't really matter in round one, but it could hurt them later on. I'm thinking about an addendum to that part of the bracket, but as far as I'm concerned if Lawson plays nobody's beating the Tar Heels.


Crazy Bone: What about the one exception to the Final Four, the Wake Forest Demon Deacons?

Cherot: They've struggled lately a little bit, but I think they're a hard team to beat because of all the athleticism they throw at their opposition. I'm not sky-high on Louisville because sometimes they just downright don't show up, and in a game that should be entertaining with as many as eight future NBA players together on the same court, I just think Wake's guard play takes them over the top. Everybody talks about Jeff Teague, but Ish Smith is becoming just as dangerous.

Crazy Bone: Not bad, not bad. Okay, so not too many first round upsets and a fairly stable Final Four. But, you go a little crazy in the second and third round. Case and point: Maryland as an Elite Eight team. This is a team that just squeaked in at the buzzer! How can you justify them getting into the Elite Eight?

Cherot: Funny you should mention that. I just got a call from one of my friends saying verbatim, "You can never be an analyst. You wouldn't have Maryland beating them if you didn't go to Maryland."

Crazy Bone: ...okay.

Cherot: To be honest, he's right. As a matter of fact, they can just as easily lose to California in the first round. But that's been Maryland all season. When they're good, they're really good, scary good considering their lack of athleticism and size. When they're bad, they can lose to Virginia in a game that almost ruined their season. With the way they're playing right now, they're definitely teetering more to the positive side. I've been noticing a disturbing trend with the Terps: they tend to play their best against teams that are far more athletic than them. They tend to play their worst against scrappy teams without a ton of talent but that can outwork them. Look at the wins against Carolina and Wake. No way on paper they should even be in those games. But, that's how good of a coach Gary Williams is. He could take a piece of lint and turn it into a BMW.

Crazy Bone: That doesn't even make sense.

Cherot: Call it what you want, but after careful consideration I'm keeping the Terps in the Elite Eight.

Crazy Bone: Do you see another Stephen Curry-like emergence from any one player in the field?

Cherot: Texas' A.J. Abrahams, Siena's Kenny Hasbrouck if he can somehow get them in the Sweet Sixteen, maybe a re-emergence from Villanova's Scotty Reynolds... I dunno. There's nobody like Steph.

Crazy Bone: Last question: if UNC loses, do you think they can blame it on the the Obama curse?

Cherot: Hey, if McCain won, he would have picked NJIT.

Moderator: Uh, and that concludes this press conference. Thank you all for attending... or just you, Mr. Bone. Thank you for coming.

Crazy Bone: Good luck to you, sir. Hope you won't finish last... again.

You'll Be Missed, Steph

Sorry, Boston Celtics' fans. This isn't an entry about the Celts cutting Stephon Marbury.

Unfortunately, this has to do with the country's best guard and 2008 NCAA tournament hero not being able to return to the dance for an encore (unless some bubble team from a major conference gets absolutely screwed). Not winning your conference tournament and coming up with only one marquee win out of conference (West Virginia) will do that to you.

We've got Verizon FIOS in our home, and in their free on-demand section they have highlights from previous NCAA tournaments. There's the obligatory Christian Laettner fade away; the Valpo hook-and-ladder; the Chris Webber four-step travel in the back-court followed by the infamous time-out (people talk about the TO, but if you watch how he got there, you'd think that was even more amazing).

And, of course, there's Stephen Curry against Georgetown, Davidson's most unlikely victory in last year's tourney.

I've been watching basketball for a long time, but Curry's four-game run in last year's tourney was probably the most captivating performance by one player I've seen. Maybe Laettner in '92, but I put Curry over him because Laettner had help. He had the best point guard in the country (Bobby Hurley) and a swingman that would end up becoming one of the best players in the NBA during his prime (Grant Hill).

With the exception of Jason Richards (who should have been drafted), nobody on that Davidson squad had or will have a chance of being drafted.

The Wildcats will probably go deep in the NIT, and then Curry will probably bolt for the league. I can only see Dell's son coming back if he feels completely sickened by not making the tourney this year, and even though he would have to do even more for his team next year, he'd be willing to make up for it. By coming back next year, however, he would cost himself some money, because unless he gains 30 pounds, adds 20 inches to his vertical and averages a triple double, he would not be a lottery pick in 2010. He may not even be one this year, which by now you know is set to be the worst one of the new millienium.

So, moment of silence for Curry and the 2008-2009 Davidson Wildcats. The madness you would have caused will be missed.

It's Not Gary's Fault

It's March again, or, as some Maryland Terrapins mens' basketball fans like to call it, the annual bubble watch.

Can you blame them? The Terps have only been firmly locked into an at-large bid in two out of the last seven years, and in one of those seasons they had to rally late in the second half of the conference schedule to secure a spot (see, 2006-2007). Of those other five years, Maryland missed the field of 64 plus one four of them. The one exception of course was the 2003-2004 season where the mercurial John Gilchrist decided that he wanted to become the best player in the country for three games in the ACC Tournament.

With each passing season ending in disappointment, the "Fire Gary Williams" talk has augmented. The crescendo reached its apex prior to the start of conference play when the Morgan State Bears, a MEAC team that would probably go 4-12 in any major conference, came into College Park to stun the Terps.

For the next couple of weeks, you could turn on any local sports radio station and faithfully here the words "Gary needs to go" from every other caller. Prior to a painful loss at Virginia, that talk had died down considerably (funny how a win against North Carolina and great efforts against Duke and Wake Forest can change that), but right after the loss the lines were jammed again with irate Terp "fans".


Yes, the script for this March isn't much different than other Marchs in the first decade of the new millenium, but let's make this clear: considering what Williams has to work with, this may be his finest coaching job since taking over the program in 1989.

Losing James Gist and Bambale Osby to graduation was going to be tough, but what Williams didn't anticipate was that Gus Gilchrist, a big body whom the Terps desperately needed, would transfer. With Braxton Dupree and Dino Gregory not quite ready to step up and give them consistent minutes in the front court, Williams had no choice but to play small ball.

This means a player like Landon Milbourne, much more comfortable guarding perimeter players, had to match-up nightly with unsympathetic high-risers on the interior. Dave Neal, Maryland's 6'7", 263-pound "center", is probably the polar opposite of athletic, probably wouldn't even be the fourth player picked in a pick-up game at your local YMCA, and yet he has had to jostle for position with players who have two million times his athleticism.

And as if his troubles on the inside aren't enough, he has to contend with the volatile Greivis Vasquez, who probably leads the nation in games where he's had more shots than points.

The fact that he has these Terps, these under-sized kids who lack collective athleticism, at 18-12 and 7-9 in the Atlantic Coast Conference (which, by the way, is the top rated conference according to the latest RPI) is amazing. Yes, there have been some ugly moments along the way--the 44-point drubbing at the hands of Duke, a 29-point debacle at Clemson, MORGAN STATE--but this team has stuck together, fighting and clawing for each of their 18 victories, even doing the same in their 12 losses. There hasn't been any let up effort wise... after all, can a team that lost to Morgan State and Virginia really afford to have a lapse in effort?

Say what you will about Williams and his inability to recruit big-time players. You'd be right; no one said he wasn't stubborn about getting his type of player, mainly a player who would cares more about getting paid at the next level than diving for a loose ball and risking his draft status.


The sad part about it is that what he has failed to do off the court--not only the recruiting but the poor academic standards during his time as coach-- may have him looking for employment sometime within the next couple of years.

But, as far as using the tools at his disposal, as far as motivating his players to lay it on the line for him night after night, as far as being a leader, give me Gary Williams before any other coach in the ACC.

Any.