The Only NBA Preview You'll Ever Have to Read
After having to put up with endless months of baseball, football and some weird woman claiming that she can see Russia from outside of her window, we're finally on the eve of the 2008-2009 basketball season. It all kicks off tomorrow night, meaning I have less than 24 hours to preview the NBA season. Talk about procrastination.
Unfortunately, I don't have the time to write a cute little entry for each NBA team like I've tried to do in the past. Maybe when I graduate college this could be something I can devote my life to, but for now you have to settle for a Cliff Notes' version.
So, without further ado, let's get this party started...
We The Best
Boston Celtics
No brainer. They won it all last year and will probably be the early favorites to do the damn thing again. Everybody's back to produce a hit sequel, everybody except for James Posey and his weird pose after hoisting a three-point shot. The Big Three--Kevin Garnett, Ray Allen and Kend... I mean, Paul Pierce--- are back for another shot at the chip, but let's not forget that they're a year older. It's a well-known fact that 99.9% of all sequels fail to live up to their gaudy expectations, but maybe they can churn out a Godfather II. At the worst, I still see them in the NBA Finals.
Projected Record: 58-24
Los Angeles Lakers
I'm going to go on the record as saying that I don't think they'll be as good with the addition of Andrew Bynum to their already potent line-up as everyone thinks. I'm not a huge fan of Pau Gasol at the four spot, and, at least early on, you'll see the Lakers struggle down low as the two bigs get used to each other. But, as long as Kobe Bryant is out there on the perimeter taking it to the rack while at the same time leading the league in four-point plays, the Lakers will at the very least be in the conference finals. That being said, anything less than hardware will be unacceptable by Lakers' standards.
Projected Record: 58-24
In the Coversation
Utah Jazz
One of the reasons I haven't been writing is because I've been playing NBA Live '09 like it's going out of style (if you need a game, I'm QuikCadence online, currently ranked 360th in the world). I mention that because 1) it's a great game, forget all the 2k9 heads who think that the "other" game is the best thing since sliced bread, and 2) despite love affairs with my Mavericks, the Bobcats and the Grizzlies, the Jazz are my favorite team to play with. Both on the sticks and on the court, they're extremely efficient offensively. Deron Williams is probably the 2nd best point guard in the world, and Carlos Boozer is a beast down low. Throw in a bench with interchangeable parts and, by golly you've got a contender. They gave the Lakers a tough run in the conference semis last year, and while they didn't do a ton in the off-season, Jazz management is banking on the fact that the young but mature team is a year older and ready to take that next step.
Projected Record: 54-28
San Antonio Spurs
You're probably already flipping out on me for putting them ahead of much better teams on paper, but you guys forget this is an odd-numbered year. Let's see... '03, '05, '07? Champions, if I'm not mistaken. All odd stats (no pun intended) have to come to an end sometime, and while it's likely that it will end this year, it's never wise to bet against the Spurs, not when they have Tim Duncan. Manu Ginobili might not be 100% healthy until maybe late December or January, but that just means Tony Parker may have an excuse to put up ridiculous scoring numbers. Then again, he is on the cover of the aforementioned best basketball game this year, but I don't think there's a cover jinx for Live. Right, Gilbert?
Projected Record
53-29
Houston Rockets
This could be finally be the year that the Rockets... get out of the first round. Of course, the acquisition of Ron Artest has them thinking more optimistically than that, I hope. Seriously, that's a talented threesome, T-Mac, Yao and Artest. Throw in Luis Scola and my man Rafer Alston and that's a solid starting five. If Artest can mesh with his new teammates, then maybe T-Mac can shed that "best player to never make out of the first round" label at the very least. Who knows, with a little luck maybe T-Mac's season will end up like Garnett's season did last year: with surgery to remove that monkey from his back. Or, maybe his season will just end with back surgery.
Projected Record
53-29
New Orleans Hornets
Yes, the West really is that much better than the East. The Hornets went 7-0 in the preseason, meaning we should probably just crown them now. Honestly, while I like the Hornets, I expect their win total to drop a tad bit, only because losing Jannero Pargo will hurt them more than people think. Yes, I know they picked up Posey, who will definitely be a change of pace to Peja Stojakovic (in other words, he plays defense), but I really think that, with the exception of Chris Paul (MVP this season), everyone on the Hornets played a little above their heads last year. That being said, they will be in the mix this entire season without sneaking up on anybody.
Projected Record
51-31
Cleveland Cavaliers
My friend Hakeem will hate me for putting the Cavs amongst the league's elite, but even the most hatingest hater has to admit that Lebron James is seriously that good. Add in Mo Williams, a player who can--gasp--create his own shot offensively, and they could be dangerous. That mid-season trade where they brought in Ben Wallace and Wally the human typo among others looked better as the playoffs went along, and with an off-season and a preseason for them to get acclimated to "the Cavalier Way", I don't think this team is any worse than a top three team in the East.
Projected record
55-27
Potential Noisemakers
Detroit Pistons
The window of opportunity for another 'chip in the Motor City is definitely closing. Rasheed Wallace is old, Chauncey Billups looked old in the playoffs, and Joe Dumars looks like he's giving this team one more chance before he blows this team up. Gone are the days when the Pistons could blame underachieving on turning the switch on and off. The Cavaliers have already caught up and surpassed them, and if they're not careful they could fall even further. Still, in the improved but still watered-down East the Pistons can potentially slip into the finals.
Projected Record:
53-29
Dallas Mavericks
(For the sake of objectivity, this entry will predominantly be written by guest columnist Detached Justin)
At the end of last season, the Jason Kidd trade looked like a worse idea than sending Sarah Palin out alone to do an interview with Katie Couric. Mavs' fans are banking on the fact that Kidd will perform better under a new, less constrictive system instilled by new coach Rick Carlisle. The Mavs still have all-stars Dirk Nowitzki and Josh Howard, not to mention a surprisingly deep bench headlined by Jason Terry and Jerry Stackhouse. Although they didn't do much (!) in the off-season, DeSagana Diop could be an underrated pick-up, (mercifully) allowing Erick Dampier to not over-extend himself.
Projected Record
51-31 (82-0)
Toronto Raptors
I spoke of sequels before when previewing the Boston Celtics, and last year the Raptors were like Mighty Ducks II: cute, and good in spots, but definitely not as good or as fresh as the first movie. But, by adding Jermaine O'neal, I think this team will contend in the East. Chris Bosh just keeps getting better, and if Jose Calderon isn't an all-star this year then something's wrong. I don't think they defend well enough to get to the finals, but they will certainly not go down without a fight.
Projected Record:
50-32
Philadelphia 76ers
I have a bet with my future brother-in-law in which I stated that the Mavericks would win more games than the Sixers. It's not just a team allegiance bet; I just don't think the Sixers are a well-constructed team. However, I do think talent-wise that they will fall somewhere in the four or five seed range in the East. Elton Brand gives them real scoring punch down-low, and Andre Iguodala is on the cusp of superstardom. The other Andre, Mr. Miller to you, is a very solid point guard who does a little bit of everything well... except shoot. And that, I believe, is going to be their Achilles' heel. Name me on guy on that roster who will shoot better than 33% from behind the line. I'm waiting... nope, I just can't see it. They will be fun to watch in the regular season, and I guess maybe there's a chance they can win more games than the Mavs. But, in the playoffs when teams collapse on Brand and dare them to fire away from the outside, how will they respond?
Projected Record
47-35 (and a nice dinner)
Phoenix Suns
The D'Antoni Era in Phoenix is done, meaning so will the majority of the fun. I still expect this team to be decent. They've still got Steve Nash and Amare Stoudemire, who I still expect to hook-up for plenty of oops. But, I always wondered how Nash would do in an offense where he had less posessions to work with. That, and with the exception of Barbosa, Stoudemire and Diaw, all of their rotation players are up there in age, including the Big Stupid Nickname, Shaquille O'Neal. Terry Porter was brought in to help them understand the importance of defense, but when you have players that can't defend, what's the point?
Projected Record:
47-35
Just What We Need... Another Mid-1st Rounder
Orlando MagicThe Magic over-achieved slightly last year, only to get ousted in the second round of the playoffs. And then... they had a fairly quiet off-season, with the exception of picking up Mickeal Pietrus, which, let's face it, didn't excite Magic faithful. With both the Cavs and the Raptors making significant upgrades, and the Pistons and Celtics already better than them, the Magic look to be stuck in wet cement this year. Dwight Howard will do everything in his power to get them out, and they'll probably still be a playoff squad, but realistically getting out of the first round would be something to celebrate.
Projected Record:
45-37
Portland Trailblazers
The Blazers were everyone's feel good story for the first half of last year, running off an improbable winning streak that left basketball geniuses like me scratching their heads. They came back down to earth, but they left quite an impression on NBA fans as someone to watch out for in the coming years. Everyone seems to think they've jumped into the playoff conversation, and while I generally disagree with everyone (I'm such a loose cannon), in this case I agree. I think they're the deepest team in the NBA. Brandon Roy is one of the few players in the NBA that you can say does pretty much everything well. Greg Oden, at the very worst, will be a low double-double guy. LaMarcus Aldridge could have a really big year. I haven't even gotten to Rudy Fernandez and, my favorite rookie, Jerryd Bayless, who will provide a spark off the bench until they unseat their incumbents. The only thing they have going against them really is youth, and I think next season we'll see them break into the West's top three or four.
Projected Record
44-38
Washington Wizards
Every year, every columnist assumes that at least one playoff team will fall off, and for at least the last two or three years everybody assumed that team would be the Wizards. Seriously... did you watch them end up in the playoffs without a healthy Gilbert Arenas? It's already a given that Arenas will miss at least a month, but even if he missed the entire season I think the Wiz still make the playoffs. Caron Butler is arguably one of the top 15 players in the league and he's only getting better. Antawn Jamison continues to put up numbers. They have a surprisingly deep and energetic bench (hell, they even listened to me and welcomed back Juan Dixon). If this team can play at the same level defensively as they played last year while at the same time incorporating Arenas' scoring ability once he returns from injury, this team could leapfrog some teams I put before them. For right now, I'll just say they're a playoff team. Unlike anybody else.
Projected Record:44-38
Los Angeles Clippers
It's so weird seeing Baron Davis in a Clipper uniform, but whatever: as long as he's there the Clippers will be among the league leaders in scoring. Their starting line-up looks really good on paper, with Cuttino Mobley, Al Thornton, Marcus Camby, Chris Kaman, and Davis. It's the type of team I'd be scared to see in a first round match-up. But, unless Camby and Kaman combine for 12 blocked shots a game, look out, because I expect this team to be sieve-like defensively on the perimeter. They won't be as bad as Golden State or Denver, but that could potentially be their downfall. They're going to be in a fight for the 8th seed, but I just can't see them being better than Portland at this point in time.
Projected Record:
42-40
Golden State Warriors
How do you hurt yourself so severely riding a moped? Aren't normal speeds on those things around 20 mph? Anyway, I believe that due to Ellis' off-season mishap, the Warriors will fall short of making the playoffs. It would have been tough even if they had him for the entire year, but his ankle just complicates things even further. Judging by the pre-season (do not try that at home), the Warriors will still score in bunches but will give up points just as quickly. Corey Maggette and Stephen Jackson will have sore wrists at the end of each game from taking 20 shots each, and Al Harrington will continue to tease Warrior fans with that "wow, he's good... wow he's bad" game. Andris Biedrins is slowly turning into a really good center, but his form at the line makes me want to vomit in my mouth. If this team can somehow come out of the gates strong and hover around the .500 mark until Ellis gets back, maybe they can jump a couple of spots down the stretch. That's assuming Ellis stays off mopeds and pogo sticks and Skip-Its (yeah, I brought it back).
Projected Record: 41-41
Denver Nuggets
Speaking of horrendous defensive teams, expect the Nuggets to be far worse defensively than they were last year. Marcus Camby was like an aging Victoria's Secret model's make-up, hiding all of Denver's defensive imperfections on the perimeter. Now that he's gone, you will start to see craters in their metaphorical face. This team will have no problem scoring, as I expect both Carmelo Anthony and Allen Iverson in the league's top ten in PPG. However, neither player has ever been accused of being a lock-down defender, and the problem is most nights they'll be matched up against the opposition's best perimeter players. I'm interested to see if J.R. Smith can take the next step or if he'll fade into oblivion like every other J.R. who's played in the league (see Rider, Reid). Their two bigs, Nene and Kenyon Martin, are extremely overpaid and haven't done much to shed that label. All in all I just don't see this team being very good this year, and you may see the Nuggets ship A.I. and/or Martin in an attempt to start over.
Projected Record
41-41
And the East's Last Playoff Spot Goes To:
New York Knicks
Go ahead, piss test me. I'm dead serious. I honestly think they compare favorably to the other couple of teams in contention. Mike D'Antoni will get these guys running up and down the floor, making the MSG an exciting destination for basketball once again. Jamal Crawford seems like the perfect player for an "F--- It" kind of offensive system, and I expect him to have a big year. Even if Zach Randolph and Eddy Curry don't buy in right away, the Knicks have the athletes to adjust. Rumor has it that David Lee can play, but the last two coaches in New York didn't like him very much, even if he was at times their best player. I'm not sure what to think of Chris Duhon as their starting point guard, but he's a low mistake player capable of running an offense, definitely a change from Stephon Marbury (Steph, Dallas has a spot for you as long as you stop calling yourself Starbury). Defensively this squad will give up points, but the run and gun teams in this league (with the exception of Phoenix in years past) tend to finish at .500 or above. .500 will be enough in the East.
Projected Record: 41-41
Anybody Wanna Play Ping-Pong?
Miami Heat
I was torn between the Heat and the Knicks, so in honor of Timbaland I went with shock value. Dwyane Wade was the best player on Team USA this summer, looking much like the guy who Tim Donaghy helped get a ring (not letting it go). If he can stay healthy all year, I'd say they were a lock for the playoffs. Unfortunately, chances are he misses quite a few games as he does every year. That being said, the Heat have some intriguing talent up front. Michael Beasley is probably the early favorite for rookie of the year playing second fiddle to D-Wade. Expect plenty of boos when the Heat travel to Phoenix this year in Shawn Marion's direction, but a few highlight reel dunks should quiet them down. Udonis Haslem is one of the best defensive fours in the league, and whoever he's matched up against will generally have an off night. But, their downfall is going to be their point guard and their depth. Mario Chalmers slipped to the second round for a reason: he's not really a point guard. If Marcus Banks hasn't panned out by now, he probably won't. Chris Quinn might have trouble against guards in the summer league I played in (the team went 0-8, I shot poorly and couldn't guard a flea on defense). All in all, this team has too many holes to leap into playoff contention.
Projected Record
39-43
Atlanta Hawks
I still can't believe the Hawks took the eventual NBA champs to seven games, because on paper there's no way that should have happened. I guess the Hawks were able to expose the Celtics' lack of athleticism like nobody else in the playoffs could. Even though Atlanta is the incumbent eight seed, I can't see them getting re-elected (don't forget to vote Nov. 4th!). While Joe Johnson will continue to make a case for himself as an upper-echelon guard and Al Horford will continue to make strides on both ends, I see everyone else on this team taking a step backwards, especially Josh Smith and Mike Bibby. Smith is a fantasy monster, no doubt, but last year he was also playing for a contract. He won't get better until he develops offensively, which I don't think he will. In the case of Bibby, dude is just getting old. He never was a jet off the dribble, but in the playoffs I thought he looked ultra slow and he's not a prototypical playmaker anyway, so I think he'll struggle to get the Hawks' athhletic wing guys involved. Nope, can't see these guys making it back.
Projected Record
37-45
Chicago Bulls
I didn't recognize the Bulls slow start as a big deal until they failed to turn it on in the second half like they always did. As perimeter-oriented as they are, they just don't play fast enough, and I don't think that's going to change under Vinny Del Negro. That said, the Bulls are loaded at the guard position, at least in terms of bodies. As a GM I thought Beasley would have made more sense, but judging by Derrick Rose's pre-season I could be wrong. He's left no doubt as to who the starting point guard should be over there, which makes it awkward for solid but unspectacular Kirk Hinrich. I still have no idea why the Bulls re-signed Ben Gordon, especially with the logjam in the backcourt, but when he's on the court he can get radiant. Luol Deng was supposed to take that next step last year, but injuries hindered him somewhat. I don't know, this team has the talent, but with so many guards with similar skill sets and a no post presence, the Bulls have a lot to overcome to sneak into the playoffs.
Projected Record
37-45
Indiana Pacers
The Pacers finally unloaded Jermaine O'Neal and now Jim O'Brien has the perfect point guard to run his uptempo offense in T.J. Ford... that is until T.J. inevitably hurts himself at some point early in the season. Seriously though, this team has some interesting talent. Danny Granger looks ready to step it up and be the man in Hoosierland. He might be one of the most versatile players in the league because of his size and ability from the perimeter. Was Mike Dunleavy Jr.'s performance from last year a fluke or a sign of things to come? It's hard to say, but as much as I hated Duke during my College Park days, I always thought that he would end up being a solid NBA player, not "Danny Ferry II". Beyond those three, the problem is that the rest of the team is filled with players who haven't quite reached their potential. For a player who hasn't recorded a double-double in three years, Troy Murphy seems vastly overpaid. I love Marquis Daniels and to this day I wish that the Mavericks hadn't traded him, but I'm not sure if Daniels does enough to warrant his salary either. Here's hoping that he blows up this year. I don't know, it seems that outside of Granger this team has too many question marks to take them seriously this year.
Projected Record
36-46
New Jersey Nets
There won't be too many people who have the Nets even this high, but in all honesty this could be a sleeper team. New Jersey kind of reminds me of 6-5 suited: someone raises, two callers and you take a flop probably getting good pot odds. If you miss the flop, fold quickly. If you hit the flop hard, you're taking someone's money. Anytime you have Vince Carter and Devin Harris on your team, there's the potential for a huge pot. But, to use another poker analogy, those two might not be a good investment in the long run, since both of those guys, as talented as they are, tend to miss a fair share of games. At least they have some good young talent developing around them. Before you write Yi Jianlian off, just remember how terrible Dirk was in his first year. Brook Lopez, for better or worse, will probably be remembered as the best big man in this draft. Josh Boone and Sean Williams are very solid defenders down low. See, there's talent on this team. Don't bet the house on them, but they may surprise you.
Projected Record
32-50
Milwaukee Bucks
On paper, this team seems solid. But, realistically, you could have placed the previous sentence in most Bucks' previews. Depending upon how good Yi gets, the Bucks either got a steal by getting Richard Jefferson for an overhyped foreign player or they got hosed because RJ may be one of the most overrated "stars" in the league for a foreign player with tremendous Dirk-like upside. The answer will probably be somewhere in between. One thing that won't change is the Bucks' tepid love for defense, even with Scott Skiles at the helm. Yes, Jefferson and Michael Redd will light up the scoreboard, with each dropping about 21-23 a game. Andrew Bogut has quietly become a consistent double-double guy inside, and that should continue. Charlie Villanueva might finally breakthrough to being a real player in the league. But, in the end
there absolutely no defensive stoppers on this team, certainly not at point guard where Luke Ridnour will probably get eaten up on an individual basis night after night. You may see them push for a playoff spot based upon their ability to score, but it doesn't look too gully.
Projected Record:
30-52
Charlotte Bobcats
Just the other day I was having a conversation with another basketball aficionado about these Bobcats, and I said that they might be the deepest team in the NBA. He replied with zen-like clarity, "Everybody being around the same talent level doesn't constitute depth." Sad, but true. If you look back at college basketball over the last few years, many of those stars turned into Bobcats. Raymond Felton. Emeka Okafor. Sean May. Adam Morrison. D.J. Augustin. The one thing they all have in common (with the exception of Augustin because obviously he's a rookie) is that none of them have really lived up to their collegiate pedigree. Felton is known as the other point guard in THE point guard class (Chris Paul, Deron Williams). Okafor has had a couple of solid years but still hasn't blossomed offensively. May has just not been in good enough playing shape to contribute on a nightly basis. Morrison so far has looked like the prototype of a bad tweener. Veterans Jason Richardson and Gerald Wallace (feels so weird calling them vets but I guess they are) will provide plenty of highlight reels, but what this team is missing is that one guy, that superstar that will propel them out of mediocrity. At least they'll have another chance to find him in the draft, right MJ?
Projected Record
30-52
Sacramento Kings
Ron Artest is Houston's problem now, but unfortunately that means that they lost the NBA's most intense defensive presence. He will definitely be missed on that end, but there is more than enough help to produce what he did offensively. Kevin Martin has become a full-fledged scorer in the NBA, and he'll definitely be amongst the league leaders in that category. John Salmons has become a consistent point forward who can fill a stat sheet quick. Brad Miller has been down the last couple of years, but when healthy he's become someone you can run an offense through. Although he's probably better suited as a back-up, Beno Udrih has become a serviceable starter in the NBA. Honestly, it's not a roster that jumps off the page with talent, but this team will play hard and will definitely win a couple of games they'll have no business winning.
Projected Record:
28-54
Memphis Grizzlies
Other than being on the worse end of the century's worst trade ever, Memphis had a less than noteworthy season last year as they tried to break in young talent. This season will probably be a more exciting version of last season. Grizzlies' fans are hoping and praying that O.J. Mayo doesn't become Dajuan Wagner or Shawn Respert, but after careful consideration I've decided that he'll definitely be better than both of those guys. He's more athletic and actually a very good defender at his position, which should keep him in the league longer. Rudy Gay has proven to be a better NBA player than a college player, and as his game continues to blossom he could be a potential all-star in two years. Mike Conley, Jr. should get the bulk of the minutes at point guard, and although he had a hard time finding the range last year on his jumper you should see him vastly improved this season. The question marks will be in the front court. How do you use Hakim Warrick? Can Marc Gasol be an effective NBA center? Darko Milicic??? I don't think this team will have trouble on the offensive end, but like most bad teams they will be horrific defensively. Still, it'll be fun to watch all one or two games they'll have on TV this year.
Projected Record:
25-57
Minnesota Timberwolves
I had a pretty strong debate about who would be the worst team in the NBA, but in the end the T'Wolves managed to barely keep themselves out of the bottom spot because, well, at this point they're a slightly better constructed team than the Thunder. Al Jefferson had his coming out party last year as a legitimate threat downlow, and he actually has some good shooters to kick it out to. Mike Miller, Rashand McCants, and even Kevin Love can all drill the long ball efficiently. It'll be interesting to see if Foye can become a legit point guard in the NBA after two seasons of teasing fans with his potential. Of course, like all bad teams, this team will struggle to defend, especially down low if the Wolves decide to have Jefferson and Love in the game at the same time for long stretches. It's going to be a long, cold season in Minnesota. They're at least three years away from contending.
Projected Record:
22-60
Oklahoma City Thunder
Thunder ownership did the city of Seattle dirty, leaving a rabid fanbase without any basketball to cheer for. The good news is that Oklahoma City finally has a professional franchise with fans that will support them through thick and thin. Kevin Durant will be a player they can count on for years for buckets and excitement. Russell Westbrook will probably be manhandled on both ends this year, but he has the potential to be a long-term solution for them at the point guard spot. Jeff Green might have underachieved to some degree last year, but it's like Morgan Freeman in Shawshank Redemption: he didn't know how to act once he was freed from the perils of Georgetown grind-it-out style. If nothing else, Chris Wilcox is a dunking machine who will end up on Sportscenter more than a few times this year. Oklahoma City fans are going to have to be patient with this bunch. One more good draft pick and a bonafide scorer down low will get this team over the hump and into conversation for a playoff spot. Until then, just sit back and watch this team grow.
Projected Record:
20-62
posted by Justin Cherot @ 12:36 AM
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