The Good Guys Off to Good Starts

We are a little more than an eighth through the NBA season and about a quarter through the college basketball season, and I know it's really premature to say this, but both of my teams are playing at real high levels and I expect both of them to make good postseason runs.

I expected this from the Dallas Mavericks, who have recovered from an 0-4 start before I even got the chance to rant on them (sorry for the false link on my livejournal. I guess I would have said something like this:

"The Mavericks look like a team that hasn't recovered from this summer's choke job. Jason Terry is shooting like John Starks on a playground during a hurricane, and Dirk Nowitzki is playing more like David Hasselhoff. And as if it can't any worse, Josh Howard is out for a couple weeks. But, I think if Dallas can re-focus they can win nine straight games."

OK, everything except for that last part was accurate. Honestly though, while I didn't see them starting 0-4, they had some tough teams in those first four games. They had a hungry and healthy San Antonio, a healthy and improved Houston, a tough Golden State team, and at that point a better Los Angeles Clippers' team. That's a hell of a way to start the season.

And while I jokingly say I couldn't see them winning nine straight games, let's look at that part of the schedule, too. Phoenix was reeling at the time, Portland is Portland, Chicago is making me look like an idiot, Memphis lacks firepower early on, Charlotte is improved but a 26-56 team can only improve so much, the Wizards can't stop anybody (haha). Only New Orleans and San Antonio are playing what I would consider good basketball early in the season.

But, hey, you win the games you need to win. That's what being an elite team in the NBA is all about.

There are still some deficiencies with this team. The starters are playing well now, but so far I'm a tad dissapointed with Dallas' bench. I think that Anthony Johnson is better than 4.7 points per game, and while I've seen Austin Croshere play well when they've been on TV, his stats say he's a janitor's mop. The bench seems to have less firepower than it did last year, but then again they had Devin Harris and Jerry Stackhouse in the starting line-up now, so I expect the bench numbers to become inflated when Stack goes back to coming off the bench.

But, at least in the last nine games, they've looked like the class of the west. I'm sure they'll level off eventually (they surely can't win their last 78, can they!?), but they've renewed my hope for them winning 60 games.

The University of Maryland Terrapins (the other good guys in case you're slow) have really impressed me so far this year. Granted, I'm not as in to college basketball as I have been for the past few years, but Maryland has made me start paying attention again. I'm going to go out on the limb and say that this is Gary Williams' best team since Juan Dixon and Lonny Baxter cut down the nets in 2002.

I've always thought that this team had talent, even the last two years when they were struggling. The one thing I thought they lacked the previous two stanzas was a genuine floor leader. In the 2004-2005 season, John Gilchrist played like an NBA talent, but honestly he seemed more interested in himself during his last season in Colege Park. And, last year, we all know D.J. Strawberry, as talented as he has proven to be this season, is not a pure point guard, not even close.

This year Maryland has two point guards who would rather get other players involved than get theirs. Eric Hayes is a steady ball handler who eerily reminds me of Steve Blake, while Greivis Vasquez provides tremendous versatility off the bench from either guard spot. The infusion of these two players into a talented but mis-guided group has made a big difference. OK, I realize that they haven't had any "tough" opponents yet outside of a young Michigan State squad, but that goes back to what I said about the Mavericks. Beat the teams that you're supposed to beat.

I haven't watched too much basketball this year like I said, but I have seen UNC, Duke, GTech, and portions of BC. I know I'm going to catch some flack for this comment, but I was most impressed by Maryland. Does this mean the Terps win the ACC? Like I said... it's only the end of the first quarter. There's too much basketball left.

NBA Preview: Portland Through the End

Wow what a semester this has been. Through a combination of being a first-time parent and a full-time worker, I've had to admittedly put school on the backburner this semester. Waste of money? Definitely, but I'll be back next semester with a much different outlook.

Anywho, I HAVE to finish this because I actually want to start talking about more pertinent stuff on here, like how the Maryland Terrapins are impressive on the court (not to mention the gridiron), what's wrong with the Mavericks, and why the hell Utah's off to such a hot start.

But first...

The Portland Trailblazers

Burning Question: Is Jarrett Jack the answer at point guard for the Blazers?

Justin's Take: On paper this certainly isn't a bad team. You've got two rookies in Brandon Roy and LaMarcus Aldridge who will be (and some argue actually are already) very good NBA players. Zach Randolph is playing like he did a couple years ago when he burst onto the scene almost out of nowhere. But, I guess if there is a question mark on this team it's at point guard with Jack. I mean, he's a solid point guard, don't get me wrong. I watched him constantly rip up John Gilchrist at Maryland for a couple years. But, he's just not the kind of player that fans can really be excited about being annointed the floor general for a team that has looked pathetic the past couple of seasons. Then again, neither was Sebastian Telfair or Steve Blake, otherwise those two would still be in a Blazer uniform. As for the team, I expect this them to be back in the lottery next year as a leading contender in the Greg Oden sweepstakes.

Projected Record: 24-58

The Sacramento Kings

Burning Question: Are they still a playoff team in a crowded West?

Justin's Take: The West is tough, and it's simple math: SOMEONE isn't going to make it, and to be blunt I think the Lakers and Kings are going to be the two teams from last year that don't make it back. The reasons are eerily similar: I don't think the Kings did enough in the off-season. They lost Bonzi Wells (although I don't blame them because there are better ways to spend $10 million) and didn't do anything to better their bench. This is practically the same team that rallied in the second half of the season to grab that 8th spot, and they lost arguably their best offensive player during the playoffs. Of course, Kevin Martin is stepping in and doing a fine job for them early on, but the reason Bonzi was so important to this team was because of his offensive versatility. He could post smaller guards and make jumpers, too. Plus, Martin was a big part of the Kings' bench, and now that he's starting... well let's just say none of those guys would be more than an injured list spectator on an elite team. Bottom line, this team will miss the playoffs, but Ron Artest will at least make it interesting to watch them.

Projected Record: 42-40


The San Antonio Spurs

Burning Question: Can you wait to see another Mavericks/Spurs playoff series?

Justin's Take: Actually, what I can't wait to see is for them to play in the conference finals as opposed to the 2nd round. I thought it was a shame to see arguably the two best teams in the NBA last season going toe-to-toe too early in the playoffs. As a Mavericks' fan I know that the road to the Western Conference finals goes through the SBC Center, and this year is no different. Tim Duncan looks healthy after that plantar fasciitis problem last year, and he returns to elite status (however, contrary to popular belief, he was healthy by the time they played Dallas, so none of that crap about it not being the "same" San Antonio). I don't think Tony Parker can have a better shooting season than he did last year, but early on he looks like he's picking up right where he left off. I also think we'll see a more urgent Manu Ginobili this year. Those three guys form a solid nucleus and from the looks of it, they'll be a one seed, at worst a two seed going into the playoffs. I don't think there's any team that can stop them from getting to the conference finals... that is, unless the Mavericks are one of those teams. They're probably the odds-on favorite to win it all, but just like in poker, odds can only take you so far.

Projected Record: 63-19


The Seattle Supersonics

Burning Question: Defense, anyone?

Justin's Take: To give you an idea of how bad the Sonics were defensively last year, I'll use a common measure. If a team shoots 50 percent from the floor, that's considered a good night. Announcers will say that the team is collectively on fire. So... for the season opponents shot almost 49% against the Seattle. I'm not making that stat up. John Hollinger called them the worst defensive team in history. The fact that the Sonics have a shot at being a .500 ball club shows you just how good they are offensively. There isn't a player on this team (well, Danny Fortson) who can't hang 30 on a given night. This team is like a fast-paced version of the West Virginia University Mountaineers: nothing but threes and I guess an occasional Ray Allen seemingly-out-of-line-but-always-pure leaner. I think they'll maintain their current pace of 105 points per game, but what does it matter if they give up close to 110?

Projected Record: 37-45

The Utah Jazz

Burning Question: I promised not to bring up this season, but are the Jazz really as good as they look early on?

Justin's Take: I mean, they look spectacular in the early-going, on a level of "Stockton what, Malone who?". I'm not getting too excited yet. I've seen Utah starts like this before. But, in terms of personnel, this is a playoff team. I'm guilty of sleeping on them, basically saying that Denver would run away with the Northwest division, and I may have to take that back later on. Right now I think the biggest difference is Deron Williams. Building upon a solid second half last season, he is setting the world on fire early on. I don't believe he can keep up his torid pace, but if he plays consistent, turnover-free basketball, I think the Jazz can shock some people this year. They're up there, for sure. As of right now, I think they're as high as a five seed, but more realistically between six and eight.

Projected Record: 46-36

And FINALLY, the Washington Wizards

Burning Question: Why can't a smattering of fans simply accept the fact that the Wizards were not better than Cleveland last year, nor will they be better than them this year?

Justin's Take: I can't lie. I like the Wizards. If I had gotten a chance to fully write this preview, my favorite Wizard/Bullet moment would be a tie between Michael Adams' double pump threes (so that's where he learned it) and when the Bullets finally broke through and got to the playoffs in 1997, earning an 8th seed when they really should have won 50 games. But, I digress. If you guys were really better than the Cavs, you would have won more games than them last year. Notice how Cleveland was on cruise control down the stretch last season, while guys barely made the playoffs at 42-40. Then, in the playoffs, if you guys were truly better than the Cavs, then you play better in the clutch and get stops, regardless of fictitious shouts of "travel" everytime Lebron gets into the lane. Speaking of defense, that's why I can't seed the Wizards higher than sixth. Every team ahead of them plays better defense, except for maybe New Jersey, whom I think is more efficient on the offensive end (efficient and high-scoring do not equal the same thing). All that being said, there's not a doubt in my mind that the Wizards make the playoffs. Challenging for the Southwest? Not a chance in hell. First round exit? More than likely. But, hey, I'm not a hater. I'm a realist.

Projected Record: 44-38

Latest NBA Preview EVER, Miami through the Phoenix...

Goodness, I actually was in a really good rhythm writing, but of course, like Dr. Lieb always says, "You should save as much as possible." Yeah, I definitely didn't do that.

But, let me see if I can transpose my previous thoughts to print...

Miami Heat

Burning Question: How hungry will the Heat be to repeat?

Justin's Take: I know at least one person who will relentlessly pursue another Larry O'Brien. Dwyane "Most Fact-Checked First Name in the League" Wade is eager to prove that he is the best player in the famed 2003 NBA Draft class, and although he's up one ring to none on both Lebron and Carmelo, another couple of titles will go a long way in solidifying that status. However, it's the rest of the team that might hold him back. Will Antoine Walker revert back to "Employee #8" and start jacking 20 shots a game? Will Jason Williams "forget" to take his ritulin and start pulling up for 30 footers with 20 seconds left on the shot-clock like he did in Sacramento? And, while there's no questioning his hunger per se, will Shaquille O'Neal finally start showing significant aging? Personally, I think Miami is talented and experienced enough to sleep-walk back to the finals, and honestly that seems realistic. Winning it, though, will rest squarely on the shoulders of D-Wade.

Projected Record: 54-28

Milwaukee Bucks

Burning Question: Do the Bucks have enough to get back to the playoffs?

Justin's Take: Before I get into that, did anybody else know that Andrew Bogut had handle? I watched the U.S. beat Austrailia through no fault of Bogut, who basically played one, two, three, four, and five for the Aussies. His versatility impressed me. But, back to the Bucks. You know what you're going to get out of Michael Redd: sizzling perimeter scoring and inconsistent defense. The X-factors on this team, however, will go a long way in telling the tale of the Bucks' season. Maurice Williams was great coming off the bench spelling T.J. Ford last year, but Ford is gone and the keys to the team were thrown to Williams. He's going to shoot the Bucks into and out of a fair share of games this season as a gunning point guard. I'm a Charlie Villanueva fan, but can he play consistently enough to get the Bucks back to the playoffs? I think they'll be back in the hunt for the 7th or 8th spot, and I'll give them the edge over teams like Boston and up-and-coming Orlando.

Projected Record: 41-41


Minnesota Timberwolves

Burning Question: Will Kevin Garnett be in a T'Wolf uniform at the end of the season?

Justin's Take: That honestly depends on how good of a start Minnesota gets off to. For the past couple of years the T'Wolves have been stuck in neutral, failing to progress from their appearance in the 2004 Western Conference Finals. This off-season, however, the team added some offensive firepower in Mike James and heralded rookie Randy Foye. Plus, they have talented (albeit volatile) Ricky Davis, so on the perimeter they are set. However, this team still has issues in the paint, and although they will block a ton of shots, they will eventually get out-muscled most nights. While teams can win this way (look at Dallas), it remains to be seen if this style of play will lead to significant progress. But, I guess the bigger question is what teams have enough talent, or at least cap room to accomodate Garnett's A-Rod-esque salary? The only two teams I can think of are New York and Philadelphia, and how much better is the situation in either one of those towns? Right now I'll bet he'll be there, but I wouldn't be surprised to see the trigger pulled.

Projected Record: 38-44


New Jersey Nets

Burning Question: Do the Nets have enough of a bench to be considered an elite team?

Justin's Take: The Nets might boast one of the best trios in the entire league. Jason Kidd, Richard Jefferson, and Vince Carter will run and gun you to death. Nenad Krstic is a future star in this league. However, beyond that there are a ton of question marks. Eddie House (whom my girlfriend has a crush on) will give them insant offense on the perimeter, and Marcus Williams
gets a chance to play understudy to one of the greatest point guards of all-time, but other than that the Nets bench is filled with players who would probably struggle for a walk-on spot for the Towson Tigers. As good as the starters are, I really don't think the Nets can be elite without bench help. Look at the teams ahead of them: Miami, Detroit, Chicago, and Cleveland all have solid depth, and while the Nets will be good enough to win the weakest division in the league, playoff time might not be too kind to the them. They'll flirt with 50 wins, but I think they're a one and done team in the playoffs.

Projected Record: 47-35

New York Knicks

Burning Question: Who would do a better job of running the Knicks: Isiah Thomas or Anna Nicole Smith?

Justin's Take: I have no idea where I came up with Anna Nicole, but the rhetorical answer to this question is that you'd barely be able to notice the difference. The thing is that the Knicks actually have talent. The problem is that it's not cohesive talent. Stephon Marbury is one of the most talented point guards in the league and he has been for years, but he just is allergic to winning. I guarantee you that if you traded Marbury for Steve Nash, the Knicks get 15 more wins. But, Marbury isn't solely to blame. Outside of David Lee and Jared Jeffries, every other rotation players feels that they should get 20 shots a game. This is a great video game team, but unfortunately the make-up of this team in real life will ultimately keep them from winning. They have no shot at getting better through the draft either; their top five pick is going to the Bulls this season (I still can't believe Isiah traded TWO first round draft picks for Eddy Curry, a center that might never average more than 7 boards a game) The only positive is that they have a good amount of trade bait on the roster. Kevin Garnett, anyone?

Projected Record: 25-57

New Orleans Hornets


Burning Question: Did the Hornets do enough in the off-season to breakthrough?


Justin's Take: Again, this is why I don't want to really talk about anything that has happened thus far in the season. If that were the case then the Hornets would be the best team in the West. I do, however, think that the talent is there. Think about this: aside from an inspired season from David West, Chris Paul took a CBA team and almost got them into the playoffs. Paul is only going to get better, and now he has Peja Stojakovic to dish the rock to, Tyson Chandler to protect the interior, and Bobby Jackson to provide a spark off the bench. Even before their big start, I thought the Hornets were a playoff team, but don't be fooled: this is still a six or seven seed come playoff time.

Projected Record: 44-36

Orlando Magic

Burning Question:Is this the season we find out why Darko Milicic was the second pick in that 2003 draft?


Justin's Take: In a word, no. However, a year from now I think we're going to see a different Darko. The Magic have to be esctatic that they have such a good nucleus with Milicic, Jameer Nelson and, of course, the man-child himself Dwight Howard to build around. However, Milicic is probably a year away from being a real force on this squad. The Magic are actually in great shape, and although they may finish a game or so out of the playoffs this year, they will be a major player in the free-agent market (Vince Carter?). Expect the Magic to be competitive this year, and then next year they will be among the East's elite.

Projected Record: 40-42

Philadelphia 76ers

Burning Question: Refer to the T'Wolves, replace Garnett with Allen Iverson.

Justin's Take: Iverson wants to die a Sixer. No matter how fickle some Philly fans are, each of them will admit that, for better or worse, Iverson embodies everything that the Sixers stand for. That being said, if Philadelphia wants to move forward, I think the best thing at this point would be to get young talent or salary cap help in return for one of the best little men to ever play the game. Sixers' GM Billy King will look long and hard at deals that will accomplish either one of these, that is unless Philly can continue this hot start and Kyle Korver keeps shooting 90% from three-point range. Don't be fooled, Sixer fans: this team will eventually fade and they'll have nothing to do in May.

Projected Record: 34-48

Phoenix Suns

Burning Question: Will Amare Stoudemire help or hinder the Suns' attempt at an elusive Finals' appearance?

Justin's Take: I feel that the Suns' were a better team last year than they were the year before when Amare blew up. The person most likely to be affected by Stoudemire's return would be Boris Diaw, who would probably be a marginal player anywhere else but in Phoenix. That being said, his passing skills really helped the Suns go, and do not try to sell me on the Suns playing this man at four and Amare at five. I think this is the season that Phoenix takes a slight step back. I mean, they will undoubtedly be one of the three or four best teams in the West. But, they'll probably see a second round exit this year.

Projected Record: 52-30