Live From The Nosebleeds

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Thursday, June 25, 2009

The 2009 NBA Glorified Hiring Process Decision Day

We're less than five hours away from Blake Griffin walking up to the podium and David Stern handing him a Clippers' hat as he whispers in his ear, "Smile for the camera. Oh, and good luck not becoming a typical L.A. Clipper bust." I have a little more than 24 hours to wrap the bow on an intensive Michael Phelps/media effects study. I intend to watch the draft in it's entirety and Facebook analyze it (quantitative research leads me to believe that more people have the 'Book than Twitter and the information is less filtered, although expect an occasional tweet, too). Therefore, I guess I really have five hours to finish the paper...

...but I can take 20-30 minutes to blog about the draft. Or 40. Or an hour and a half.

Before I get into the draft, how'd you like that Shaq trade to the Cavs? Personally, I think it's a homerun for both parties. Yeah, Shaq isn't exactly a young buck anymore, but he gives the Cavs something they clearly lacked against the Orlando Magic in the Eastern Semis: a dominating post presence. Zyndrunas Ilgauskas is probably still one of the better centers in the league, but his game is more predicated on pick and pop and spot-up shooting. Anderson Varejao is a good energy guy, but to say that his offensive game is limited is like saying that Paris Hilton's acting range is limited. O'Neal can score inside and, if not block shots, clog the lane on the other end. From Phoenix's perspective, they save some money... as long as Ben Wallace keeps good on his promise to shut it down.

But, leave it to Shaq to deflect attention from what's really important: today's NBA Draft. While it's true I don't think you'll see any future Hall of Famers coming from this draft (watch that come back to bite me when I'm 45), I definitely think people are severely sleeping on the talent pool of this draft. You already know about Blake Griffin, who I think has a lot of Chris Webber in his game. Hasheem Thabeet is a project, but 7'3" shot-blockers with enough coordination to eventually "get it" one day offensively don't grow on trees. There are six or seven point guards in this draft who have the potential to be NBA starters... not just down the road, but at some point next season, with another three or four point guards who can contribute realistically. Hell, even the wing guys aren't so bad.

I have to admit that I'm not as privy to the inside information on who's taking who this year, but I think that's only because the GMs themselves won't know until they're off the clock. I think that speaks a little bit to how potentially deep this draft is.

But, what I'm hear to do is make general predictions about how some guys will fare in the NBA. Let's group these guys up.

Superstars

Honestly, none that I can see right now. Nobody in this draft has super-special transcedent skill that will make them a global fixture. Griffin has the best chance of course, with his solid athleticism and his underrated skills on the perimeter for a big guy. But, more than likely Griffin will end up like a more skilled Kenyon Martin without the baggage and (hopefully) the tatoo of lips on his neck.


A Couple All-Star Appearances

Griffin probably falls into this group. But, this is also where things get a little hairy. It's like having pocket queens facing a re-raise from the guy who hasn't played a hand for four hours (I promise a Vegas blog at some point in the next week, Ryan).

Jonny Flynn, as I've stated before, displayed a ton of Chris Paul tendencies at Syracuse. He's not Chris Paul, obviously, but I think out of all the guards he'll enjoy the most success early on because his game is NBA ready. I think he's my early "outside the box" pick for Rookie of the Year.

People are extremely mixed on Ricky Rubio. His basketball IQ is highly advanced for someone his age, and I think eventually he could be special. The only question about him is his pedestrian athleticism. But, Jason Kidd made it work, and more than likely he'll be brought along slowly no matter what team he goes to, so I'll give him the benefit of the doubt and say that with tutelage he will become an all-star.

I thought Jrue Holiday had a horrendous year at UCLA, but I think part of that had to do with the Bruins' "watch the grass grow until the shot clock hits 15 and then clear out for Darren Collison" offense. He has all the physical tools to be a very good pro, maybe even the best player in this draft when everything's said and done.

My gut tells me that... gulp... Stephen Curry will make at least one all-star appearance and be a much better NBA player than people--myself included--have given him credit for. Watching him in the combine (I know, I know, chairs and cones), I already think he's one of the top five shooters in the league. But what separates him is that e can get his shot off under duress. Yeah, he turned the ball over a little much at Davidson, but when you have the ball in your hands 90% of the time playing 99% of the minutes, you're bound to have some hiccups. He won't have to do that at the NBA level.

I really think Jeff Teague (and not just because Chad Ford has him going to the Mavericks at #24) has the skill set to be a very good NBA player. He reminds me of Kevin Johnson, who, you guessed it, made a couple of all-star appearances.

Hmmm... I had a tough time figuring out what to do with Brandon Jennings. He reminds me of Kenny Anderson (not just because he's a lefty) with a better stroke. I certainly don't think he's going to come into the league and set the world on fire, but I think he's got the boom or bust game, and from what I've seen, I think he's more likely to boom.

Staples in the Rotation for Years

Say Thabeet never blossoms into an offensive threat. That's okay, because I still think he's going to be that type of player who you always have to give minutes to. In the next two to three years, I bet you he will lead the league in blocks per minute. In a league where good defenders are hard to find, this guy can make some money. I was going to save this bombshell for Facebook, but I'll share it: if you put a good to my head and asked me to pick who I would want for the next ten years between Greg Oden and Thabeet, I would say Thabeet. Easy.

I'm not crazy about James Harden, but my gut says that he'll be an NBA starter or first guard off the bench for several years. Nothing about his game knocks me out, but none of his deficiencies turn me off, either.

Terrence Williams has been a hot name in the draft due to his workouts. His athleticism is off the charts, and he's versatile enough to stay in the forefront of any rotation for years to come.

To quote Steve Kerr from NBA Live '09 when referring to Lama Odom, Earl Clark looks like he was just born to play basketball. At the worst, I see him getting significant minutes throughout his career. If he grasps the mental part of the game, he could be special. Big "if" though.

James Johnson could step in for a lot of teams right now and be an NBA starter. Like Harden, there's nothing about his game to suggest he'll be a star, but he can contribute in the league for years.

There will always be a place in the league for a guy like DeJuan Blair. I feel like he can be a more effective Danny Fortson down the road because of his propensity to bang and frustarte opponents.

Ty Lawson has more of a ceiling than some of his point guard counterparts, but he plays a steady floor game. I think that at some point in his NBA career (maybe sooner depending upon who drafts him), he will be an NBA starter, but more than likely he will make his money as a tempo-changing guard off the bench.

Everything I just said about Lawson, cut and paste with Toney Douglas.

Lawson's teammate Wayne Ellington is projected to slip on pretty much every mock draft outside of the Baltimore Sun (which says a lot), but guys who can shoot it and have a decent amount of athleticism tend to make it in the league.

Darren Collison and Patty Mills will probably have similar careers as good back-up point guards, except that Collison has an outside chance of being good starter because he's a better shooter.

Chase Budinger seems like a more athletic Mike Dunleavy, Jr. to me. Two or three years ago that might not have been too good of a thing to say, but now that L'il Dun is a solid NBA player, Budinger has hope.


Catch the Bust


This is always the hardest to project, yet it's the category that effectively puts GMs and front-office types in the unemployment line. Just ask Elgin Baylor. Even I'm not perfect: I'm still reeling from calling O.J. Mayo a potential bust last year, and yet I'm in year six of waiting to be right about Darko Milicic blowing up to Tom Chambers-like proportions.

By all accounts, Tyreke Evans has worked out extremely well. Those same accounts claim that Evans jumper is still inconsistent. So yeah, he can get into the lane against anybody, but he can't knock down the 18-20 shot that teams are pretty much going to give him every night. Bill Simmons would love this: Evans reminds me of a better version of Tony Allen. I hope I'm wrong about Evans, but I just don't see him blowing up like everybody says. And no, I'm not still bitter about Memphis beating Maryland...

There are a ton of run and jump wings already in the NBA. As athletic as DeMar DeRozan is, I just don't see how he projects as being any different.

Gerald Henderson is a good guy and all... but that whole "Duke curse" thing scares me. Plus, as athletic as he is, Henderson is undersized and I don't think he handles the ball well enough to stick in the NBA.

B.J. Mullens is probably the second best big man in this draft, but I'm labeling him a test subject in the "DeAndre Jordan Hypothesis". The hypothesis: coaches not wanting to give you big minutes in college suggests that your not even close to being ready to play in the NBA.

I can't understand why teams are even considering Sam Young as a first round pick, let alone any earlier than a mid-to-late second round pick. While he's definitely athletic, he's not trascendently athletic, and I don't think his game translates into the NBA.

I've watched game film on Omri Casspi, and usually in those highlights they try to submit the ones that make him look ridiculously good. I've seen Sebastian Telfair highlights that make him look like Chris Paul. Nowhere in the highlights did Casspi look like an NBA player. And yet some team is going to draft his rights. Jason Kapono once said during a pre-draft interview that if he changed his last name to "Kaponovic" he could be a first round pick. In fairness, I think Kapono could probably play circles around Casspi.

So there you have it. Five years from now, on this exact date, I'll re-post this article and we'll see how big of an idiot I turned out to be. Or, I'll be too busy to do it because some team recognized my eye for talent and I'll be scouting talent for them the following year.

Maybe somewhere in between.


Don't forget to tune in to my Facebook status for pick by pick, commercial by commercial, ridiculous interview by ridiculous interview analysis.

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