Playoff Preview

I'm not going to lie... studying for accounting has taken its toll. Ugh, I just can't do it anymore.

So, at least for the next 15 to 20 minutes, it's back to what I know. Or at least what I think I know. Somewhat.

What we finally do know is that the NBA Playoffs are set. If you've been following me at all the past week and a half, you know that I'm an absolute genius... at least in terms of who would get the sixth spot in the West. And, for the Dallas Mavericks' reward? They get to play the Manu Ginobili-less San Antonio Spurs in what may be the best series of the first round. I'll get to that in a minute.

With a weekend of all work and no play coming up, here are my first round predictions:

Eastern Conference

(1)Cleveland Cavaliers vs. (8)Detroit Pistons

Once upon a time, in a galaxy seemingly far, far away, the Detroit Pistons were the team to beat in the Eastern Conference. Then, this snotty-nosed brat named LeBron James came along and single-handedly demolished them in Game Five of the 2007 playoffs. Despite a competitive return to the conference finals last year, I still think the Pistons are emotionally hungover from that game. And they will not snap out of it in this series, doesn't even matter if Allen Iverson is on the playoff roster. Heck, Iverson could be completely healthy, travel back in time and have a 25-year-old version of himself take his place and it wouldn't even matter. The Cavs are way too good, and if the Pistons win a game at the Quicken Loans' Arena, I go jog down Phelps Street in nothing but a pink Isiah Thomas jersey... for free.

Prediction: Cavs in four.

(2)Boston Celtics vs. (7) Chicago Bulls

It will be the first question posed on just about every playoff preview you read: how healthy is Kevin Garnett? This is just a gut reaction, but something tells me the guy just isn't right. As intense as he's been throughout his career, KG isn't the type to miss 21 of 25 games without something being seriously wrong. That being said, 100% or not, I don't think the Celts need him in this series. I don't know who it was, but I heard someone on ESPN say that the Celts don't match-up well with the Bulls. Okay, but they won the season series 2-1, with the two wins being one-sided. Let's kill that noise. Rajon Rondo cancels out Derrick Rose, and Ray Allen does the same to Ben Gordon. Paul Pierce is light-years better than John Salmons. So are the Celtics role players. Coaching? Vinny Del Negro has done an admirable job this year, but Rivers has been the Loctite glue (too much Lowe's) that has held this team together without Garnett. Da Bulls may win one on adrenaline alone, but that's it.

Prediction: Celtics in five.

(3) Orlando Magic vs. (6) Philadelphia 76ers

Andy Udvardy, if you're reading this, Shanta and I prefer Italian. With dinner obligations (see 76ers preview for the inside joke) out of the way, let's talk basketball. Everybody thought the Magic were doomed when they lost Jameer Nelson, a fine point guard in this league, but let's be realistic: Rafer Alston might be a half-tier below Nelson in the hierarchy of point guards. Outside of this past week and a half, they've been outstanding with him at the point. It helps to have a nice collection of weapons like Hedo Turkoglu, Rashard Lewis and... oh yeah... DWIGHT HOWARD to get the ball to. The Sixers are similar to the Magic in that they "put-putted" into the playoffs, but the difference is that the Magic just let their foot off the gas pedal while Philly has been in neutral all year (clever analogy given their 41-41 record, I know, I know). Unless the Sixers get Angry Whopper hot, Orlando should have no trouble disposing of them quickly.

Prediction: Magic in five.

(4) Atlanta Hawks vs. (5) Miami Heat

Too close to call, and that's a testament to how good Dwyane Wade (2009 LFTN MVP) is. It basically boils down to the Hawks' balance, with six players averaging double figures, against Wade's, um, unstoppability(?). I just think in the end the Hawks have the athleticism to deter a one-trick pony. Unless Wade averages 40 a game for the series with adequate help from Michael Beasely and Jermaine O'Neal plus a coming-out party from Mario Chalmers against Mike Bibby, I just can't see the Heat moving on. If I'm wrong somehow, then the NBA hype-machine will go absolutely nuts with a Wade/'Bron match-up.

Prediction: Hawks in six.

Western Conference

(1) Los Angeles Lakers vs. (8) Utah Jazz

When the season started, this was billed as a Western Conference finals match-up, especially since the Jazz played the Lakers as tough as any team not wearing a green uniform during last season's playoffs. Boy, what a difference a season makes. That being said, if the Jazz do somehow muster up the energy to win this series, it wouldn't be the craziest thing ever. Given the talent the Jazz have and the fact that everybody on the squad is finally healthy, this would be more like a three beating a six. I know what you're thinking... drug test me. But, as good as the Lakers have been, the Jazz have balance that can disrupt the Lakers. I can name six players off the top of my head that they can use to guard Kobe Bryant. Los Angeles is also vulnerable at the point guard position defensively. Boozer and Millsap bang hard enough to annoy a traditonally fragile Pau Gasol. Will Andrew Bynum be ready to step out on Okur? If this were the NCAA tournament, one-and-done deal, I would pick Utah. But, conventional wisdom Justin has returned and realizes that the Lakers have far too much talent on the offensive end for the Jazz to handle in the long-run.

Prediction: Lakers in six. Again.

(2) Denver Nuggets vs. (7) New Orleans Hornets

Carmelo Anthony better be careful, or he's going to become T-Mac II. He's in his sixth year and he's still trying to get his team out of the first round for the first time. What makes it worse is that none of those series were even remotely competitive; T-Mac at least blew 3-1 and 3-2 series' leads. I think this will be the year, however, that he gets his team out of the first round with the help of his teammates. Chauncey Billups coming over to Denver was the most beneficial acquisition of the year, and his mere presence has inspired the Nuggets to--gasp!!!--play defense. The Hornets won't be an easy out, not with the uber-competitive Chris Paul treating every possession on both sides of the ball like they're the last he'll ever play. But, as I said during my season preview, everyone from last year's team played way over their heads, and it's become apparent during their late-season slide that this has been an over-achieving team masquerading as a contender. Maybe they can bend the rules and get a new passport for Jannero Pargo under the new name, "Bowen, Ryan."

Prediction: Nuggets in five.

(3) San Antonio Spurs vs. (6) Dallas Mavericks

(Breathe..."objective, objective...")

In beating the Hornets tonight, the Spurs pretty much showed why they'll never go away without a fight. But, let's get down to the nitty gritty: can they make a run to the finals without Manu Ginobili? Greg Popovich is a master motivator, and I'm sure he'll try to use a combination of Roger Mason, Michael Finley and Bruce Bowen to keep them going without missing a beat. But, the truth is that age is finally beginning to keep up with this team. Ginobili has already fallen victim to wear and tear. Tim Duncan isn't feeling so spry nowadays. I think Finley uses Just For Men on his facial hair. One of the downfalls of the Dallas Mavericks is that while they're skilled offensively, they lack collective athleticism (except for when they let Gerald Green out of his cage once in a blue moon). I predict that Tony Parker will average somewhere in the 30s in this series. However, the Mavs have superior athleticism at every other position. Athleticism helps create easier scoring opportunities. Can Matt Bonner legitimately guard Dirk Nowitzki? Can Mason, Jr. really stay in front of Jason Terry? While I anticipate this to be a really good series, I will pick the Mavs in a mild upset.

Prediction: Mavs in six.

(4) Portland Trailblazers vs. (5) Houston Rockets

Nobody wants to give the young Trailblazers credit. Here they are, winners of 54 NBA games, one game better than their counterpart... and they will be labeled underdogs by just about anybody with a pen or a laptop. Getting home-court advantage was huge, especially with the fourth best home record in the NBA. Ask the Lakers, who got blown out by a million (or 17, I was close) the last time they went there: the Rose Garden is a tough place to play. If the Rockets can somehow steal one on their floor, I think Houston wins the series, but young teams thrive at home. Besides, Portland is probably the only team in the league that can throw two legit defensive stoppers at Yao Ming. It'll be interesting to see how Brandon Roy handles a healthy dose of Ron Artest and Shane Battier, but my guess is that he'll be fine... not transcendent, but fine. That'll be enough for the Blazers.

Prediction: Blazers in six.

Let the hype begin...