Here It Goes...

First off, click on the link (obviously) and then watch Jay Bilas' rant on who got snubbed from the tourney. I fully agree with him. It's amazing to me that Syracuse didn't get invited to the tournament with ten Big East wins. I also agree with his point on Drexel. Doesn't matter what conference they're from, how do you NOT reward a team that won 14 road games this year against quality teams for the most part? Kansas State being left out was weird, too.

And that is all.

Actually, I'm just glad Maryland isn't playing in the NIT this year.

Whatever... let's do it. Let's go to the picks as I try to overcome two sub-par years in a row.


St. Louis

Florida will absolutely man handle Jackson State. If you're a Florida fan be disappointed if this game is any closer than 30. Speaking of disappointment, how does Purdue get in and Syracuse not? Actually, how does the Big Ten get almost as many teams as the Big East and ACC when in fact the league (as a whole) is nowhere near as good? Whatever, Arizona beats Purdue pretty handily. I like Butler as a five seed, and as much as people will be saying, "Watch out for ODU" all week, I don't buy them as a legitimate threat. The committee actually left out the best Colonial team in Drexel. Maryland's got their hands full against Davidson, whom I think might have finished 8-8 in a major conference this year, but, especially after the whole Miami fiasco in the ACC tourney, they'll advance, though it'll be an interesting contest. First "upset": I think Winthrop beats Notre Dame. I know that's going to be a popular choice, but I'll explain why: the Fightin' Irish just aren't athletic enough. Their whole game is dictated by how Russell Carter and Colin Falls shoot, and if the threes aren't falling, they suffer as a whole. Oregon is too much for Miami (Ohio). I consider Tech a serious sleeper in this region, and I think they'll run the Rebels out of the building. Wisconsin/Texas A&M sounds nice... until you add the CC to the A&M. Badgers by 15+.

Florida/Arizona could be an interesting second round game. Arizona can match their athleticism and they've got tough match-ups for the Gators on the perimeter. However, the Wildcats have no answer on the interior for Al Horford and Joakim Noah. Gators advance. The Terps (oh it feels so good writing about them after a two year exile) are deeper and I think more talented than Butler. The only thing is Butler's A.J. Graves is a straight-up assassin, and of course the Bulldogs won't be scared, having played a pretty good schedule against some high profile teams. Sigh... I've got Maryland winning. That might come back to haunt me. Oregon beats Winthrop due to far superior play in the back-court. This next one scares me: Georgia Tech over Wisconsin. Let me explain. I like the Badgers. Most years I would pick them to go far due to experience and a somewhat methodical style of play. However, not only do I think Tech is deeper and more athletic, but ultimately, as I talked about in my previous entry, those last couple of at large teams tend to play well in the tournament, like they have a chip on their shoulder.

I think the fairytale ends for Maryland against Florida, as much as it pains me to say that. The Terps have a fighting chance due to their depth and at times scrappy defensive play, but I think across the board the Gators are too talented. Oregon and Georgia Tech, if it came to fruition which monetarily I would welcome with open arms, could be one of the best games in the tourney due to both teams' run and gun style of play. The Ducks look really good right now and I think they win.

Florida goes back to the Final Four.

San Jose

Kansas won't even blink in the first round, and for the first time in three years they'll at least see the second day. Villanova pissed me off last year, and while last year they certainly yielded a better team, I think their conventional line-up this year helps them. I think they'll beat Kentucky. Illinois isn't playing at home, so I think they'll get thrashed by VTech. Holy Cross/Southern Illinois. Even though this is a 5/12 game, these two teams are pretty equal in my eyes. I'm giving it to Holy Cross, for no particular reason other than God's on their side. Duke sucks, and the CAA will have a team in the 2nd round as VCU ends their awful yet overrated season. For what it's worth, I liked Wright State when I watched them play, but against Pitt, Aaron Gray will be too much for them inside. I like Gonzaga, who actually more resembles a mid-major team this year. Nothing about Indiana really scares me. Add those two opinions up and that equals a 10-7 up-ending. Weber State is another team that I like, but I just don't see them beating UCLA.

Kansas/Villanova should be interesting, and given that I've picked 'Nova to win the national title the last two years, I should pick them again. But... man, I just can't do it. Jayhawks in a close one. Virginia Tech should beat Holy Cross. I really don't like Pitt that much, but it's hard to see VCU beating them because they're so guard-oriented. UCLA/Gonzaga, re-match from last year's bittersweet sixteen... at least for Adam Morrison. UCLA is still better and I think they win.

I'm going against the grain here: I'm picking Virginia Tech over Kansas. It's really a gut feeling. On paper there's absolutely no reason this should happen, but that's the beauty of March. I guess my rationale is that the Jayhawks are not a clutch team, and I'm not saying that the Hokies are, but they have more experience. I look for that experience to overcome talent in this case. UCLA knocks out Pitt.

And then, the Pac-10 reigns supreme as the Bruins get back to the Final Four.


East Rutherford

Home of the Nets. I remember going to a game when I was little. MJ hung 43 on those boys. I fell asleep. Interesting, I know.

Anywho, Carolina will run over Eastern Kentucky (will there ever be a year when a one seed falls?). Marquette/MSU is going to be one of the better first round games. Drew Neitzel, Dominic James. Two absolutely clutch point guards. James has the better supporting cast, so I might have to go with Marquette. USC beats Arkansas pretty easily, showing the Pac-10's dominance this year. To me Texas was a little low and I think they'll get by New Mexico State fairly easily. G-Dub beats Vandy. Oh, heres a good one. Washington State/Oral Roberts. Seeding wise, it's a no-brainer. But Oral Roberts is tested. Here it goes... move Oral Roberts into the second round. BC beats Texas Tech. I'm kind of iffy about that game but BC to me is just tougher. Georgetown grinds Belmont to death.

Carolina beats Marquette, simply because they have five guys coming off the bench who could start for them, and that's not even a diss to Marquette. Texas and USC should be good, but Kevin Durant is amazing. Longhorns take it. I must be on something right now... Oral Roberts gets to the Sweet Sixteen. Am I putting too much stock in the Kansas victory? Possibly. But, if they can beat Washington State, I've got to believe that they can beat G-Dub. Georgetown outgrinds BC.

Texas/North Carolina has the potential to be a great game. And why not? It seems like every game Texas plays in is a great game, which means they play pretty well under durress. Want to know a secret? The Tar Heels are a great team, but they do not play well when the pressure is on. If they're involved in a close game, more often than not they lose. Check it out... Tar Heels go home early and empty-handed. Georgetown grinds it out and beats Oral Roberts, finally ending my acid-induced trip.

Longhorns-Hoyas is like a complete contrast of styles. I think I've found my money team. Texas.


San Antonio

Write this down: Ohio State will play one of the closer 1/16 games in the tournament's history against Central Connecticut State (don't worry, they'll still win). I'm just not that high on Xavier, especially when I think that Syracuse, Drexel, and Kansas State had better resumes. BYU moves on. Like Notre Dame, Tennessee is another one of those teams that live and die by the three. Long Beach State is athletic enough to disrupt them. Five seeds constantly lose to 12 seeds. Give it to Long Beach. Virginia smokes Albany. Louisville and Stanford are pretty even, and I think it'd be safe to say the Cardinals will win. College basketball joke. Not funny, I know. Put Louisville into the second round. Texas A&M will win an interesting one against Penn. Nevada/Creighton on paper looks like it will be a close game, but I'm picking Nevada in somewhat of a lopsided affair (even though Nick Fazekas burned me last year). Memphis kills North Texas.

OSU continues their winning ways in round two. Virginia outlasts BYU. I've got the Aggies beating Louisville. Nevada beats a slightly overrated Memphis team. I've been hard on Memphis the past couple seasons, but honestly, they go months without playing a single good team. Nevada, though flawed in their own right for the same reason, is better I think.

Ohio State beats Virginia in what would promise to be a good game with Greg Oden being the single difference. Texas A&M ends the Wolfpack's run.

OSU/A&M is a tough one to call. On paper I think Ohio State is obviously more talented, but over the years in these things, what's one me a fair amount of pools is going with the intangibles. A&M is more experienced. Aggies go to the Final Four.


Final Four


Florida/UCLA, in my mind, should be the final. These two teams have been the most consistent of the top five to eight teams that keep fluctuating at the top. Unfortunately, they have to meet in the semis if they make it that far. UCLA returns almost everybody, but Florida returns everybody, and I really think in this case that's a huge difference, because Jordan Farmar and Ryan Hollins made huge contributions to their run this year. I like Darren Collison in Farmar's place, and maybe they are in fact a better team this year than last year, but the fact of the matter is so is Florida. Gators go to the championship game.

The spread on the Texas/Texas A&M game in my mind has got to be -.000001 in A&M's favor. They've already played in one of the better games of the year. As much as I said you consider intangibles when picking these things, I simply cannot ignore the fact that Durant has gone from the "other guy" in the 2007 Draft to a great freshman to a great player to Player of the Year to one of the best that's ever played the college game. This morning on the radio Kansas coach Bill Self compared his impact on the college game to Larry Bird. How can you not pick Texas to win this game?

Heads-Up

Florida/Texas kind of reminds me of Duke/Michigan back when the Fab Five were trying to dethrone a champion. Texas actually starts four freshmen, but you get the idea. It tells you how far this game has come since then, where Florida is one of the most experienced teams in the country with four juniors and a senior in the starting line-up. That experience will definitely help them, but don't expect Texas, despite their youth, to come into the game gun shy. They certainly won't make it easy.

But, in the end, Florida is too good. They coasted for the most part through the regular season and still got a number one seed. They looked untouchable in the SEC tourney. I think they win it all.


Couple of things I considered when filling out my bracket:

In a couple of instances the seeding benefited the inferior teams. Louisville gets to play in Kentucky, and if they beat Stanford they'll get Texas A&M in a home game more or less. I though UCLA should have gotten a one seed, but they may be better off with their two seed anyway. They don't have to leave the state for their entire bracket, and if Kansas makes it to the Elite 8 (which I'm dumb I guess for not having them doing) they'll be playing a road game.

I might have given the mid-majors a bit more credit than I should have, but honestly that's a reflection of the parity of this year. And, if you thought last year was crazy, the overall number of upsets may be crazier this year. It's not that I'm necessarily in love with the mid-majors this year. It's that the mid-majors I have advancing face teams with numerous flaws that can be exposed, like Tennessee's reliance on Justin Cherot jumpers, or Washington State's propensity to let the other team hang around.

Unlike years' past, I tried to ignore conference prestige and making decisions based upon conferences. Although a team's conference says a ton about the team, that's by no way shape or form an end-all. I think the ACC and Pac-10 have the most talent top to bottom, but this year I think the Big 12 is stacked at the top, which is my rationale for having two representatives from the Big 12 and none from the ACC.

But, finally what I considered when filling this out is that unfortunately I'm going to get games wrong. In fact, I won't be the least bit surprised if Washington State bounces Oral Roberts in the first five minutes. What I've learned over the years in these pools is very rarely do my opponents have perfect brackets (with the exception of Hakeem's 99th percentile bracket last year). The formula for winning these individual game tournaments is that the most creative bracket often wins. Year in and year out, that's been my calling card.

Sign up for my pool.

The Madness Starts Today

I know, March officially started on the 1st. However, if you really look at it, all the zaniness of teams scrambling to make the tourney starts today.

The reason it starts today is that, with the exception of Wright State's win over Butler last night, the mid-major teams failed to make any kind of push during their conference tournaments. There won't be any Bradley, Missouri State, or Drexel in the Big Dance. 99% of these at-large are going to the big guys.

Still, that Wright State "upset" (even though they were seeded higher than Butler in the conference tourney) had quite an impact on how things are going to play out in the next five days. It's obvious that Butler is going to get an at-large, so that steals one away from the big conferences. That means teams like Clemson and Illinois have to come up big in their conference tourneys.

If you look on ESPN's "Drive to 65", you'll see that both of those teams still have work left to do. They are essentially fighting for one of only four spots left.

It's cliche to say that once you're in the tournament anything can happen, but honestly those last four spots historically do carry some importance in the tourney. If memory serves me correctly, two of those four, Texas A&M and George Mason, won their first round games last year. Come to think of it, weren't the Patriots in the Final Four last year? I forget.

So, don't dismiss those teams fighting for their lives. Chances are they'll mess with your bracket if you don't take my advice.


But, here are some predictions for the major conference tourneys:

ACC: North Carolina
Reason: Other than the fact that they're the most talented team, their roster is perfectly set up for this kind of format. In these tournaments more often than not the deepest team wins.

Darkhorse: It's hard to call the Terps a "darkhorse", especially since they're a trendy pick after reading my blog for motivation. Truthfully, I don't want to see them win it because losing will knock them back to earth and better prepare them for the NCAAs. I'm going to pick Virginia Tech. Lots of experience on that team and they won't be fazed by the pressure of the ACC tournament atmosphere.

Big East: Syracuse
Reason: They're probably off the bubble now, thanks to a first round win this afternoon. However, I think this team, given their talent, should be thinking bigger than this tournament. Write it down: I might be on something, but I think this team has Elite 8 potential. Debate.

Darkhorse: Either Marquette or Villanova has the opportunity to steal this tourney. Both teams have been overlooked the majority of the season, but isn't it true that guards can get you places?

SEC: Florida
Reason: It's a safe pick, but I think they feel like they have something to prove. Lately they haven't been playing too well, but I look to this tournament as a bounce-back point. That, and, honestly they're more talented than anybody else.

Darkhorse: LSU needs to win every single game to make it back to the NCAA's after grinding their way to the Final Four last year. Don't expect them to go down without a fight.


Big Ten: Wisconsin
Reason: It's a toss-up between Wisconsin and Ohio State, especially since they split in the regular season and both games were close. But, I've got to go with the Badgers because they're more experienced and, to be honest, Ohio State hasn't exactly played well in big games this year despite their record.

Darkhorse: To me, no one in college basketball has improved more than Michigan State's Drew Neitzel, and the more I watch him the more he reminds me of Gerry McNamara, a player willing to take the big shot and keep teams in games. For that reason alone, the Spartans are my surprise pick.

Pac-10: Washington State
Reason: I've watched them play this year and they're a composed team. Plus, any team that plays tough defense has a chance to win one of these things. UCLA has probably been, pound for pound, the best team in the nation in terms of winning big games and staying in the top three. However, I think they're starting to coast at the wrong time. No reason they should have lost to Washington last week.

Darkhorse: I'm in love with Oregon's guards, Aaron Brooks and Tajuan Porter. Without a bracket in front of me, I can already tell you I'm putting them at least in the Sweet Sixteen, if not the Elite 8. Come to think of it, if they get the right match-ups... well, talk to me on Sunday.

Big 12: Texas A&M
Reason: I think this team is destined for big things in the tournament. They play with a cool confidence that's personified by their floor leader Acie Law IV. I don't think he lets them lose this tournament.

Darkhorse: It's easy to say Texas, especially since they probably have the best player in the country in Kevin Durant, but I'm actually going with another team in the state. Texas Tech not only has a little more to play for (they're bubblicious but they'll probably make it), but they've won some pretty big games this year. They won't be scared of anybody in this tournament.


Consider this a warm-up for my full-fledged prediction blog, coming Sunday or Monday morning.