The Madness Starts Today
I know, March officially started on the 1st. However, if you really look at it, all the zaniness of teams scrambling to make the tourney starts today.
The reason it starts today is that, with the exception of Wright State's win over Butler last night, the mid-major teams failed to make any kind of push during their conference tournaments. There won't be any Bradley, Missouri State, or Drexel in the Big Dance. 99% of these at-large are going to the big guys.
Still, that Wright State "upset" (even though they were seeded higher than Butler in the conference tourney) had quite an impact on how things are going to play out in the next five days. It's obvious that Butler is going to get an at-large, so that steals one away from the big conferences. That means teams like Clemson and Illinois have to come up big in their conference tourneys.
If you look on ESPN's "Drive to 65", you'll see that both of those teams still have work left to do. They are essentially fighting for one of only four spots left.
It's cliche to say that once you're in the tournament anything can happen, but honestly those last four spots historically do carry some importance in the tourney. If memory serves me correctly, two of those four, Texas A&M and George Mason, won their first round games last year. Come to think of it, weren't the Patriots in the Final Four last year? I forget.
So, don't dismiss those teams fighting for their lives. Chances are they'll mess with your bracket if you don't take my advice.
But, here are some predictions for the major conference tourneys:
ACC: North Carolina
Reason: Other than the fact that they're the most talented team, their roster is perfectly set up for this kind of format. In these tournaments more often than not the deepest team wins.
Darkhorse: It's hard to call the Terps a "darkhorse", especially since they're a trendy pick after reading my blog for motivation. Truthfully, I don't want to see them win it because losing will knock them back to earth and better prepare them for the NCAAs. I'm going to pick Virginia Tech. Lots of experience on that team and they won't be fazed by the pressure of the ACC tournament atmosphere.
Big East: Syracuse
Reason: They're probably off the bubble now, thanks to a first round win this afternoon. However, I think this team, given their talent, should be thinking bigger than this tournament. Write it down: I might be on something, but I think this team has Elite 8 potential. Debate.
Darkhorse: Either Marquette or Villanova has the opportunity to steal this tourney. Both teams have been overlooked the majority of the season, but isn't it true that guards can get you places?
SEC: Florida
Reason: It's a safe pick, but I think they feel like they have something to prove. Lately they haven't been playing too well, but I look to this tournament as a bounce-back point. That, and, honestly they're more talented than anybody else.
Darkhorse: LSU needs to win every single game to make it back to the NCAA's after grinding their way to the Final Four last year. Don't expect them to go down without a fight.
Big Ten: Wisconsin
Reason: It's a toss-up between Wisconsin and Ohio State, especially since they split in the regular season and both games were close. But, I've got to go with the Badgers because they're more experienced and, to be honest, Ohio State hasn't exactly played well in big games this year despite their record.
Darkhorse: To me, no one in college basketball has improved more than Michigan State's Drew Neitzel, and the more I watch him the more he reminds me of Gerry McNamara, a player willing to take the big shot and keep teams in games. For that reason alone, the Spartans are my surprise pick.
Pac-10: Washington State
Reason: I've watched them play this year and they're a composed team. Plus, any team that plays tough defense has a chance to win one of these things. UCLA has probably been, pound for pound, the best team in the nation in terms of winning big games and staying in the top three. However, I think they're starting to coast at the wrong time. No reason they should have lost to Washington last week.
Darkhorse: I'm in love with Oregon's guards, Aaron Brooks and Tajuan Porter. Without a bracket in front of me, I can already tell you I'm putting them at least in the Sweet Sixteen, if not the Elite 8. Come to think of it, if they get the right match-ups... well, talk to me on Sunday.
Big 12: Texas A&M
Reason: I think this team is destined for big things in the tournament. They play with a cool confidence that's personified by their floor leader Acie Law IV. I don't think he lets them lose this tournament.
Darkhorse: It's easy to say Texas, especially since they probably have the best player in the country in Kevin Durant, but I'm actually going with another team in the state. Texas Tech not only has a little more to play for (they're bubblicious but they'll probably make it), but they've won some pretty big games this year. They won't be scared of anybody in this tournament.
Consider this a warm-up for my full-fledged prediction blog, coming Sunday or Monday morning.
The reason it starts today is that, with the exception of Wright State's win over Butler last night, the mid-major teams failed to make any kind of push during their conference tournaments. There won't be any Bradley, Missouri State, or Drexel in the Big Dance. 99% of these at-large are going to the big guys.
Still, that Wright State "upset" (even though they were seeded higher than Butler in the conference tourney) had quite an impact on how things are going to play out in the next five days. It's obvious that Butler is going to get an at-large, so that steals one away from the big conferences. That means teams like Clemson and Illinois have to come up big in their conference tourneys.
If you look on ESPN's "Drive to 65", you'll see that both of those teams still have work left to do. They are essentially fighting for one of only four spots left.
It's cliche to say that once you're in the tournament anything can happen, but honestly those last four spots historically do carry some importance in the tourney. If memory serves me correctly, two of those four, Texas A&M and George Mason, won their first round games last year. Come to think of it, weren't the Patriots in the Final Four last year? I forget.
So, don't dismiss those teams fighting for their lives. Chances are they'll mess with your bracket if you don't take my advice.
But, here are some predictions for the major conference tourneys:
ACC: North Carolina
Reason: Other than the fact that they're the most talented team, their roster is perfectly set up for this kind of format. In these tournaments more often than not the deepest team wins.
Darkhorse: It's hard to call the Terps a "darkhorse", especially since they're a trendy pick after reading my blog for motivation. Truthfully, I don't want to see them win it because losing will knock them back to earth and better prepare them for the NCAAs. I'm going to pick Virginia Tech. Lots of experience on that team and they won't be fazed by the pressure of the ACC tournament atmosphere.
Big East: Syracuse
Reason: They're probably off the bubble now, thanks to a first round win this afternoon. However, I think this team, given their talent, should be thinking bigger than this tournament. Write it down: I might be on something, but I think this team has Elite 8 potential. Debate.
Darkhorse: Either Marquette or Villanova has the opportunity to steal this tourney. Both teams have been overlooked the majority of the season, but isn't it true that guards can get you places?
SEC: Florida
Reason: It's a safe pick, but I think they feel like they have something to prove. Lately they haven't been playing too well, but I look to this tournament as a bounce-back point. That, and, honestly they're more talented than anybody else.
Darkhorse: LSU needs to win every single game to make it back to the NCAA's after grinding their way to the Final Four last year. Don't expect them to go down without a fight.
Big Ten: Wisconsin
Reason: It's a toss-up between Wisconsin and Ohio State, especially since they split in the regular season and both games were close. But, I've got to go with the Badgers because they're more experienced and, to be honest, Ohio State hasn't exactly played well in big games this year despite their record.
Darkhorse: To me, no one in college basketball has improved more than Michigan State's Drew Neitzel, and the more I watch him the more he reminds me of Gerry McNamara, a player willing to take the big shot and keep teams in games. For that reason alone, the Spartans are my surprise pick.
Pac-10: Washington State
Reason: I've watched them play this year and they're a composed team. Plus, any team that plays tough defense has a chance to win one of these things. UCLA has probably been, pound for pound, the best team in the nation in terms of winning big games and staying in the top three. However, I think they're starting to coast at the wrong time. No reason they should have lost to Washington last week.
Darkhorse: I'm in love with Oregon's guards, Aaron Brooks and Tajuan Porter. Without a bracket in front of me, I can already tell you I'm putting them at least in the Sweet Sixteen, if not the Elite 8. Come to think of it, if they get the right match-ups... well, talk to me on Sunday.
Big 12: Texas A&M
Reason: I think this team is destined for big things in the tournament. They play with a cool confidence that's personified by their floor leader Acie Law IV. I don't think he lets them lose this tournament.
Darkhorse: It's easy to say Texas, especially since they probably have the best player in the country in Kevin Durant, but I'm actually going with another team in the state. Texas Tech not only has a little more to play for (they're bubblicious but they'll probably make it), but they've won some pretty big games this year. They won't be scared of anybody in this tournament.
Consider this a warm-up for my full-fledged prediction blog, coming Sunday or Monday morning.
posted by Justin Cherot @ 6:14 PM
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