Davidson vs. Goliath

I know, I know: the title is cheesy, and I bet if I Googled it this article would probably show up at least four or five times by journalists who were probably like, "Wow, this sounds catchy!"

Alas, the title does say it all. Despite having made a miracle run to the Elite 8 by beating Gonzaga, Georgetown (killed my bracket), and Wisconsin, Davidson beating the Kansas Jayhawks will be their most daunting task, borderlining on the realms of impossibility. That being said, out of every college basketball game this year, I think this one may be the most intriguing to the masses.

Why? Simple: Stephen Curry has "it". He's the ultimate underdog, not having been recruited by any big-time schools and yet carving up defenses with his lethal jumper and cold-bloodedness. On paper there's no way Davidson should be able to compete with the schools they beat, but this kid willed them to victory. College basketball fans love that, the virtual unknown coming into his own on the biggest of stages.

People question his ability to be effective at the next level. As a matter of fact, I completely agree with NBA Draft.net's assertion that Curry is somewhere in between Juan Dixon and Steve Kerr skillwise. But, given his intangibles, I definitely see him being a contributor at the next level. That's later though; all indications are that he'll be back for his junior year.

I just want to enjoy today, where he'll be chased around all day by Mario Chalmers and Russell Robinson. Great defenders they are, I don't think they'll effect Curry as much as experts think they will. This kid has been the focal point of defenses all year, so what's different now?

Does Davidson win? Paper says they have absolutely no chance, with Kansas steamrolling opponents by an impressive 21 point clip. But, ask George Mason about paper.

That's why I'll be watching.

Oh, and I think Texas beats Memphis today. I know I praised them and everything early in the season, but the Longhorns will be the best team they've played all year by far. Too much balance, PLUS they're playing in Houston. It should be a great game, but it will be Derrick Rose's final one as a collegiate athlete (thoughts of Rose and Durant are already running through my head).

Enjoy the games.

Split Personality

The slump ends this year, one way or another.

I'm in two pools this year, and I'd be lying if I said I didn't want to win one more than the other. One costs significantly more, and I've been contemplating how to play them, especially in the midst of a three year, fundless drought. Most people who do pools would say, "So what?"

I don't consider myself most people.

I consider myself a basketball pundit, someone who has seen more basketball than geezers quadruple my age. I cemented this reputation after winning a grand total of six pools in five years. I know my stuff.

I said a couple posts back that I'm a little less informed than I had been in previous years. While that may be true, I've seen enough basketball to carry me in these two pools.

Why? Because I'm taking my two personalities and dispersing them amongst two pools.

I'd be an idiot to let psycho "Oral Roberts is going to the Sweet Sixteen" do the more expensive tournament, so I'll delegate him to handle the low buy-in pool. Mr. Eagle-Eye Objectivity will do the grown man diddy.

Grown man? Hey, I'm in it for the money, too!

I thought I told you to go to bed.

Well, I've had so much &^%$ caffeine that I can never sleep at night. Dude, you gotta hear some of my theories.

Fine, fine. I guess I'll let you chime in on my predictions.

Our predictions.

Sigh... our predictions.

East Region

Even my hyper, caffeine fiend friend agrees that Carolina will man handle Mount St. Mary's. Despite late season tomfoolery up in Bloomington, I think Indiana is still good enough to beat Arkansas. Don't be fooled by the hype: George Mason isn't good enough to beat Notre Dame.

But wait... don't they have two senior leaders who were there when they got to the Final Four? And, hasn't at least one five seed beaten a 12 seed in 17 of the past 19 years? And, you actually think Harangody can carry a squad of otherwise average Division I players that might not even start at some mid-majors?

Blah, blah. You can go ahead and pick them, but the CAA got one bid for a reason: they're a mid-major conference.

Don't generalize. That's what got you in trouble last year.

Whatever. Notre Dame wins. I picked against Washington State last year...

...actually, I did.

... whatever: you picked against Washington State last year, and while you may be privy to making that same mistake again, I'm not. They're a very strong basketball team, and while they aren't very exciting to watch, they're steady, and I'm confident they'll make it out of round one.

Crazy Bone and I actually agree that Saint Joseph's will beat Oklahoma, mainly because the Sooners are so banged up. That, plus the fact that they beat Xavier twice in ten days and beat 'Nova during the regular season leads us to believe they can advance.

Man, that Boise State/New Mexico State game made quite an impression on me, and there's no doubting that the Broncos have heart. But, within the first five minutes of the game Louisville will rip it out and eat it. Butler got screwed with their seed and their location, having to play a good South Alabama team in what will be like a road game, but I still think their heady guard play wills them on.

I ain't seen the other Alabama play all year, but one thing I do know is that Butler is heavily reliant on the three. You know what they say... live by the three...

...die in the next round, but not against South Alabama. Tennessee does what the Terps couldn't and beat American (kudos on the win last night; I didn't watch).

In round two, we have another game that my alter ego and I heavily disagree on. In my opinion, North Carolina wins a fairly competitive game. Go ahead, buddy.

All year long I've been saying Indiana is a sleeper for the Final Four (maybe not all year because I haven't been blogging like that but I guess out loud). To me, there's no guard in the country better than Eric Gordon when he's focused, and DJ White is a MAN inside. Look, Carolina struggles defensively are well-documented, and I think they can get exploited in this match-up. I know who I'm picking.

Good luck with that. Washington State, simply put, is a better team than Notre Dame, and as much as I like Luke Harangody, Cougars prevail. Louisville is too athletic for Saint Joseph's. Ditto for Tennessee as they roll past Butler, getting partial revenge for a loss in the pre-season NIT last year.

North Carolina...

Indiana...

... will be too much for the Cougars. Louisville/Tennessee will be a fun game to watch. Tennessee I think is more athletic, but Louisville's size inside with Padgett and Derrick Character will end their season.

North Carolina...

...INDIANA!!!

You're grounded. North Carolina beats Louisville. Are you really picking Indiana to go to the Final Four?

Yeah.

You're an idiot.

Midwest

Kansas beats Portland State by at least four touchdowns. The 8-9 is generally tricky in the tourney, but I like UNLV to beat Kent State convincingly. They've still got a few key players from a team that made it to the Sweet Sixteen. Clemson beats Villanova.

Still mad I picked 'Nova to win it two years in a row?

Hell, yes, AND they lost in the first round last year. In all honesty, Clemson is really just the better basketball team. I liked your stat about 5/12, but not in this game.

I never said anything. I just asked a question.

Anywho, Vanderbilt beats Siena and Shan Foster continues to play his way into the lottery. USC/Kansas State. Honestly I'm split on this one, with or without headcase helping me. I'm picking USC because KSU hasn't been impressive lately, and the Trojans have proven they can win big games.

Michael Beasely is nasty. O.J. Mayo is Dajuan Wagner '08.

And basketball is a team game. No disrespect to Billy Walker and crew, but Mayo has a much better supporting cast. Trojans win. As annoying as Wisconsin is to watch, especially around basketball purists, they'll beat Cal-State Fullerton. Davidson/Gonzaga is real interesting, because you could reverse the seeds and no one would notice. I think Gonzaga is the better team on paper, but good guard play can exploit them, and the Wildcats have two of the best in the nation in Stephen Curry and Jason Richards. Davidson marches on. UMBC senior Brian Hodges sounded real confident on the radio about his team's chances against the Hoyas, and, honestly, if the Retrievers can force an up-tempo game, they may have a chance...

...did we just switch personas?

No. Ultimately, the Hoyas will win by double figures.

Kansas beats UNLV in a game that will probably be decided in the last two TV time-outs. Clemson beats Vandy. I'm telling you right now: Clemson is legit. You don't play Carolina to as tough as they do by accident. Here's another one that we agree on: USC beats Wisconsin. For such a young team, they play with an unexpected composure. Sure, they can score, but they can win the other way, too. That's why Wisconsin's pace won't surprise them.

Hope this one doesn't blow up in our face. Might be one of the bigger games in the bracket for both of us.

No, trust me. We've got much bigger ones. Georgetown beats Davidson handily.

Clemson beats Kansas, and I'll give you two reasons: 1) While they didn't beat Carolina, they played them well, and to me Kansas isn't as good. It'll be a very good game, but I think Clemson moves on.

Now you're starting to grow some!

Georgetown beats USC.

Now, wait a minute! How is Georgetown so different in the way they play from Wisconsin?

Simple: the Hoyas have athletes.

I might go the other way on this one.

Do what you want, it's your pool. When I win, we'll split it.

In AC?

I was thinking more along the lines of something nice for Shanta and Cadence.

Oh. Well, that's good, too.

Shut up. Georgetown beats Clemson.

Clemson to the Final Four.

South

Memphis smacks UT-Arlington down. I've only watched Oregon a couple times, and while I'm generally high on the Pac-10, I'm not so much on them. Mississippi St. moves on. Okay, here's your 5/12: Temple beats Michigan State. The Owls are absolutely rolling, and while you generally think of them as a methodical team, but Dionte Christmas and Mark Tyndale can light it up. That little match-up zone is annoying, too. Oral Roberts beats Pittsburgh. Marq...

...what'd you just say?

Just making sure you were actually paying attention. Pittsburgh wins handily (although I will be a sour-puss if Oral Roberts gets this right a year late). Marquette/Kentucky makes me nervous, only because Dominic James is so up and down. I still think the Golden Eagles are more athletic, and Kentucky... well, they got in with a shoddy resume. Give it to the Big East. Stanford and Cornell would be an interesting heads-up aptitude match, but on the court, the Lopez twins are too much. St. Mary's I think might be a couple seeds under expectation going into the tourney (a conference tourney loss will do that), but I think they have better guards than Miami's guard-oriented attack. Go Gaels. Texas makes Austin Peay.

That was funny.

Just ignore the italics. Memphis will run over Mississippi. Pittsburgh will find a way to master that crafty zone (simple: knock down jumpers and attack the gaps) and beat Temple. Here's a big game: Stanford loses to Marquette.

But, why? I mean, you just said James makes you nervous. And, how do they combat the bigs?

Today's game is a guards' game, and while big men are at a premium, their advantage on the perimeter negates Stanford's advantage inside. When in doubt, go with the guards, because ultimately they hold the fate of every game in their hands.

Well-spoken, especially from a 5'9" GUARD!

5'10", thanks. Golden Eagles win, and I can't believe you're suddenly becoming the voice of reason. Texas is too much for St. Mary's.

I can make the argument that Memphis will lose to Pittsburgh, especially since the Panthers will be the best team they've played in awhile. However, the Tigers can match Pittsburgh's toughness, and as much as I like Levance Fields, Derrick Rose will have him on lock. Tigers. Texas can do everything that Marquette can do, but better. Texas.

Tough call between the Longhorns and Tigers. Memphis has been on the brink of taking that next step, and the whole idea behind recruiting Rose was that he was their missing piece. That said, I think this is where the Tigers soft conference could come back to bite them. Yes, I know Memphis has an impressive out of conference resume, but when you delve deep into it, all of those "tough" games, outside of Georgetown and Tennessee, were a little overrated. They split those two aforementioned games. Texas attacks you with very good balance, and D.J. Augustin is definitely the best point guard in the country. I really think the Longhorns, head-to-head ten times, would win seven. Yeah, I'm going with Texas.

You don't sound confident.

This is a tough one, but I gotta go with my gut.

When's the last time your gut was right?

...

West

This is the region where I/we are either going to get broke or get rich. UCLA beats Mississippi Valley State into the ground, as Russell Westbrook throws down one, maybe two highlight reel jams. Texas A&M is inconsistent as hell, and I've got to give the edge in that game to the BYU. I know tons of people who think Drake will fall to Western Kentucky, and it's probably the most popular of the 5/12 upsets. I know one will happen; it's just my job to make sure I pick the right one. Truthfully, they are ripe for an upset, especially given their style of play. But, they're legit. You don't get ranked in the top ten by accident. Drake wins by a dozen or so.

Ripe for an upset. Like fruit.

It's 3:30 in the morning. Why don't you go lay down?

Can't. Too much Mountain Dew.

Another popular one is UConn/San Diego, but I don't buy it. Better bigs, better guards, UConn is just plain better. Here's one I'll actually bite at: Purdue will lose to Baylor. Saw the Boilermakers play a couple of times this season, and they're a little green in close games. Sure, they did well in the Big Ten, but none of those teams are very, how should I put this, creative offensively...

...aside from Indiana!

...right. Baylor has some good guards, and while they get criticized from feeding off the bottom portion of the Big 12 and struggling as of late, I think playing in a more competitive conference will help. Xavier/Georgia is ANOTHER popular one, one that I had down a couple of days ago, but I've changed my mind. Sure, the Bulldogs are media darlings, having won three games in less than 48 hours, but when reality sets back in, this is a team that went 4-12 in conference and had to win four straight games to get above .500. The Musketeers aren't exactly sizzling, but they are a good basketball team, a much better one than Georgia.

But, isn't that why you play the games? Isn't that why March Madness is the most fun time of year?

Well, yeah, but...

...but nothing. Plus, if you don't buy the whole "sentimental favorite" thing, consider this: the Bulldogs aren't Cornell. They play in a highly competitive conference. Who has Xavier played recently?

Come on. The A-10 is a real good conference this year. You honestly could have made the case for five teams getting in.

Georgia.

Xavier advances. And, on the heels of that one comes the most important first round game of the day for us.

Us?

That's right. I agree with you. Arizona will beat West Virginia. Look, I know there was debate about whether the Wildcats should even be here. At 100%, the Wildcats, in my opinion, are one of the best teams in the nation. I've seen almost every guard play in the country, and I'm about to say something borderline crazy: Jerryd Bayless, when healthy, is the best offensively I've seen. Period. He's also got one of the best swingmen in Chase Buddinger, who's like a much more athletic Mike Dunleavy, Jr. Jordan Hill is tough inside, and Nic Wise gives Bayless a running partner. Look, West Virginia's Joe Alexander may be arguably the hottest player in the country right now, but 'Zona has too many weapons for WVU.

Co-sign.

More about them later. Duke kills Belmont.

UCLA beats BYU pretty handily. This may come back to haunt me, but I have Drake beating UConn. That's a tough style to defend on one day's rest. Xavier is just good enough to beat Baylor.

I've got them in the Sweet Sixteen.

You're special. And, here we go... every year I pick a money team in these things. I remember the first time I ever won a pool I picked the Florida Gators to win. Dude, I got laughed at so hard...

Whatever, that was my pick. But, he's right. I made that pick back in '00, people thought I was absolutely nuts. But, I had done my homework. They were deep enough to make it happen. Some teams you just latch onto. Sure, they didn't win it, but when while I was racking up points in the finals, everybody else had zeros.

You know, that's why we're in the predicament we are! You make these god-awful decisions and hope for the best. And, maybe that's why I'm trying to talk myself out of it. But, yes, I have Arizona beating Duke. While the Blue Devils are certainly much better than last year, they are also like a rich man's Butler or Drake, highly reliant on perimeter play. The Wildcats haven't been great defensively, but in this case I do believe they match-up well enough to beat Duke, and they won't need a perfect game to do it.

Go Cats!

UCLA beats Drake, dousing the hopes of a mid-major returning to the Final Four. And, you guessed it: 'Zona beats Xavier. No knock on the Musketeers, but the Cats are battle-tested.

UCLA will beat Arizona.

But, here's an interesting question: how hard is it to beat a team thrice?

Hard. A good point. But, UCLA is better at pretty much every position except one, and that's close to a push.

Final Four

North Carolina would love to have the last five minutes of last year's regional final back against Georgetown, and while no one's invented a time machine yet, UNC will at least get a chance to enact some revenge. Really just a contrast in styles: Georgetown controlled; UNC run and gun. The Hoyas' game won out last year, but I think the Tar Heels, and especially Tyler Hansborough, are better in the half-court this year. Tar Heels advance to Monday.

UCLA and Texas both have a ton of weapons and play with great balance, but in the end I think the Bruins have performed better in closer games (refs help or not). Composure will be the key, and I think UCLA wins out.

And, in the final, UCLA will battle UNC. Two storied programs, battling for 2008 supremacy. Lots of history. I think UCLA's ability to play better in the half-court will win out.

Dude I just got back from the bathroom, what happened?

We're done. I just ran down how we're gonna come back to glory this year.

So now it's we?

Hopefully at least one of us can get this damn thing right.

Maryland Didn't Make It???

Can you imagine the uproar if they had made it? I mean, pretty much every single analyst at ESPN was up in arms about Virginia Tech not making it, so I can hardly fathom the backlash occurring from the Terps sneaking in.

In terms of the teams that didn't make it, I think Hubert Davis had a great point when he said that Syracuse wasn't even in the discussion, despite having a better overall resume (in my opinion) than Oregon, Kentucky, and their Big East counterpart Villanova. Everybody talks about how Arizona State got a raw deal (I constantly laugh at that Dick Vitale soundbite whenever it comes up), but if you're going to talk about them, at least mention the Orange in that same conversation.

Maybe it's just the fact that they won me a total of $600 in two pools five years ago, but still...

Anyhow, I'm probably going to need more time to think about my bracket. I filled out my five minute impulsive bracket just now, but I think that's cost me money in the past few years. My victories in the past always came from meticulous studying, so I'm attempting to return to my roots.

However, I will let Cadence fill out a bracket. Hold tight for the results...

March Gladness, Sadness, and... You Know the Rest

Madness, for those of you too slow to catch on. How the heck is everybody? So much for that New Year's resolution I made. Hopefully, with everything going on in the next couple of days, I'll get back into the swing of things.

How long has it been? Last time I wrote, Maryland was hoping for a three or four seed in the NCAA tournament, and the Portland Trailblazers were still hypothetically involved in the Jason Kidd deal. Wow, how times have changed.

Anyway, yeah. How about those conference tourneys? How does Georgia, the worst team in the SEC this season manage to win twice in one day? Hell, how does Arkansas rise above the rest of the bubble pack and make it into the SEC final?

How do Coppin State, UMBC and American University qualify for the dance while Maryland is left to hold down the NIT (much more about this in a minute, trust me)?

All those stories are definitely interesting, and trust me, I've been quite into all the conference tourney happenings, but, in all honesty, I didn't think I was truly into the whole madness of March (especially after the Maryland loss) until I saw the Boise State/New Mexico game about thirty minutes ago.

I tried watching the Georgetown/Pitt game, but found myself fairly unemotional, feeling like I was just passing the time. I guess it was for two reasons: 1) As good as Georgetown and Pittsburgh might be, the Big East to me has become a fairly mundane, work-the-clock kind of league and, superficial as it may sound, I hate that kind of basketball, and 2)What do they really have to play for? Georgetown could have blown Pitt out and still not have risen above a two seed, and while you can make a good argument for the Panthers having played their way into a three seed, who cares? They're going to the tournament anyway.

That's why I wanted to switch to the WAC Championship Final, a league which in recent years has become a one-bid pony. I wanted to see two teams play who would not take tomorrow for granted. And, I say without hesitation that this was the best game I've seen all year.

When I made the switch with about 11 or 12 minutes left in the game and the Broncos (that is, Boise State for those unfamiliar with Jared Zabransky's now famed "Statue of Liberty play) led the Aggies of New Mexico State by 13. The only thing I truly knew about either team was that the Aggies were the #1 seed and regular season champ, and, upon seeing that score, I figured I would just stick around to see the contrast of emotion on the side-lines: jubilation from Boise State; frustration and utter disbelief from New Mexico State. That, and, ugh, I did not want to go back to that damn Big East Final.

However, the Aggies pleasantly surprised me, using a combination of suffocating defense, guard penetration and, the above all, heart to whittle away at Boise State's lead. After blowing such a huge lead, especially as the underdog in the first place, I expected the Broncos to fold under pressure.

But, down the stretch and throughout all three overtimes, they took every punch the Aggies threw and countered with blows of their own. On the road no less!

I do think that the better team lost in this case, but that's the beauty of March Madness. You can talk RPI this and "record in last ten games" that all you want, but once that (hopefully unbiased and non-mafia-backed) referee throws the ball in the air, wipe the slate clean and play ball.

In terms of brackets, I haven't figured out a strategy quite yet. I have to admit that I'm going into the tourney a little less informed than I have been in previous years, but I can cram. After a couple disappointing years in bracketology, I'll be back amongst the contenders in any pool.


One team I won't have to research will be my Terps, unless I decide to run an NIT pool. I've got to be completely honest: as a Terp fan for the past ten years or so (admittedly I did hop on the wagon late but when I hop I hop as anyone knows), I've seen some inconsistent seasons, as well as some big-time choke jobs. For me, this one has to take the cake. How do you lose to teams like American and Ohio at home, only to beat #1 North Carolina on the road? How does a team blow a 20 point lead with 12 minutes and change in a must-win game (I won't even bring up the fact that it was James Gist's senior night)?

The Boston College game was a microcosm of their season-long dual identity problems. They shoot out to a 21-7 lead early, lead by nine in the second half, and then literally hand the Eagles the game on a silver platter with mind-numbing turnovers, most of which led to buckets. That and, oh yeah: the Eagles finished dead last in the ACC during the regular season.

Despite everything I just wrote, and it goes back to what I said early in the season, I think this was one of Gary Williams' best coaching jobs. "But you just said..." Yeah, I know, but seriously, he took a team that lost at home to American, American, and willed them to the bubble. Us Maryland fans want them to go to the tournament every year and get to the Final Four so we can relive the glory days and blah blah, but we have to take the small victories, too. I know a ton of people won't want to hear any of what I'm saying, but after having had time to think about it, it's true.

Don't fire Gary. Period. Get his guys to be more proactive in getting talent on the recruiting trail, but he should be able to coach there as long as he wants.

Good luck in the NIT, guys.