Live From The Nosebleeds

If you want unadulterated analysis of basketball, whether it's the NBA, college basketball, or some pick-up game I saw yesterday, take a gander at my blog.

Saturday, October 06, 2007

Hindsight Before I Do My Previews

I love doing previews, if for no reason other than to have something to laugh at when the season ends. Let's go back over some of last year's gems...

Atlanta Hawks

"Marvelous Marvin [Williams], as I've heard Dickey V call him countless times as a collegiate athlete, apparently made people remember who he was this past summer. He didn't have to, but he played on the Hawks summer league roster and destroyed the competition. Now that Harrington's gone, Williams is in prime position to blossom this year."

Comment: He blossomed, alright... blossomed like (insert a flower that does not blossom well at temperatures below -50 degrees Celsius). Honestly, though, in his defense he was hurt for a portion of the year. He'll be a good sixth man for them this year, now that Atlanta added Al Horford in the draft.

Boston Celtics

"[Ryan] Gomes looked really good during the second half of the year, and even though he's a tweener at 6'7", he's a grinder like Mike McDermott (sorry, too much poker lately). I think his overall upside is limited (compared to the other kids on this roster), but I expect to see a jump in production for him this season."

Comment: Ah, that was back when poker was still fun. Anyway, technically I was right. Boston did tank near the end of the season (and remember it was Gomes who called them out on it), but Gomes was one of the few bright spots on a really bad team. His points jumped from seven to nearly 13, while his rebounding went from five to... well almost six. Okay, kind of a reach there. I think he'll have a good year in Minnesota, but if you thought things were bad in Boston, you ain't seen nothin' yet.

Charlotte Bobcats

"With another year of experience, I look for Raymond Felton to emerge as one of the East's top point guards this year."

Comment: Let me do a preliminary rundown of the best point guards in the East and we'll see how far it takes me to get to Felton:

Gilbert Arenas (I guess he's a point guard)
Jason Kidd
Chauncey Billups
Kirk Hinrich
Andre Miller
T.J. Ford
Mo Williams
Felton
Stephon Marbury
Jameer Nelson

I gave him the benefit of the doubt over Marbury because he's younger. You'll see later on that a draftmate of his made me look really stupid, but honestly, this list isn't neccesarily a knock on Felton. He's still got plenty of upside, and with the Hornets planning on a more uptempo attack this year, 16 and 8 isn't out of the question. One of the best in the East, though? Come on, Justin, put down the pipe; he's got to shoot at least 40% from the field to be up there.


Chicago Bulls

"Player on the Rise: I think we have a tie. The Arlington Heights Daily Herald, a Chicago based publication, reported that [Luol] Deng had beaten out [Andres] Nocioni for the starting small forward slot. It honestly doesn't matter which of them start, because they are both obviously going to play heavy minutes. Deng is a versatile swingman who is just starting to come into his own, and Nocioni showed me a great deal in both the playoffs against Miami and in the FIBA Basketball Championships for Argentina. It's a luxury to have both of these guys on the same team for two reasons: 1) match-up problems and, 2) trade bait."

Comment: Everything in this tidbit is kind of boring except for the last two words: trade bait. Chicago has a very good team, but unfortunately they're not going to take another step forward until they get either more help in the post and/or more consistency/explosiveness on the perimeter. Either one of these two combined with one other player could have gotten them Pau Gasol before the trade deadline last year, or even Kobe Bryant this summer if the team had pushed hard enough. I tend to like Deng better than Nocioni, who struggled through an injury plagued year, but the Bulls need that one great player to push them over the top. Why not trade two good ones to get that?

Cleveland Cavaliers

"I think the Cavs and the Bulls are fighting for three and four in the conference this year. James has tasted the playoffs, and even though there weren't any huge additions to the team in the off-season (too early to tell with Brown), I think the Cavs will be a little better than they were this season. That still won't mean a trip to the finals, but the conference finals aren't out of the question. Detroit and Miami may have something to say about that, but I think they'll be in the mix. Second round knockout, however, seems more likely."

Comment: I gotta be real: the Cavaliers shocked me last year. And, actually, scratch that... LeBron James shocked me. He cruised through the regular season, but really cranked it up in the playoffs, especially against Detroit. They had a weak draw before that, which opened the floodgates to some haters (cough, Hakeem, cough, Colin), but after watching him in Game 5 last year... even I was taken aback.

But, I think what sums up James in a nutshell came a funny moment from the 2007 ESPY Awards which I couldn't find on YouTube. Jimmy Kimmel introduces Lebron, who gets carried in on this gigantic throne. Punchline: "Imagine if they won a game in the finals."

The NBA wants him to do so well, but he can only get the Cavs so far. He needs help, and especially with the Celtics re-loaded, the Pistons pissed off, D-Wade's chip on his surgically repaired shoulder, and Gilbert being Gilbert, there's NO way they get back.


Dallas Mavericks

"That being said, this team won 60 games last year, and I feel like while they didn't do anything drastic, they're definitely better than they were last year. The only obstacle I see is themselves. Anything less than a trip back to the finals would be a disappointment."

Comment: God, I absolutely hate being right. I knew they'd win more than 60, but I knew they'd shoot themselves in the foot, although I didn't know that it'd be against Golden State. I think last year Nelly and that "small ball" shit really got into their heads, and Dirk just was out of his comfort zone the entire series, all adding up to me being right about the last sentence as well.

As big of a Dallas fan as I am, we're going to learn a lot about them this year as a team.

Denver Nuggets

"J.R. Smith is turning heads this pre-season for the Nuggets, both in good and bad ways with Coach George Karl. Talent wise, there's no questioning who the starting shooting guard should be on this team. He was in Byron Scott's doghouse for a reason, but in Karl's system he should flourish."

Comment: Before the fight at Madison Square Garden, Smith was having a pretty solid season, and he was making people remember why he jumped straight from high school in the first place. But, once A.I. came to town, he got lost in the shuffle and found a way into another coach's doghouse. And then came the off-season, where his friend died in a car accident where Smith was behind the wheel.

From a basketball standpoint, I'm just not sure about Smith. I mean, he is only 21 and most would say he has a bright future ahead of him. I just don't think it's in Denver.


I'll hit some more up tomorrow. God, I'm lazy.





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